TIFR-IISc team develop simulation model of COVID-19 spread

A joint team of Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), Mumbai in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru, has designed a city-scale agent-based computer simulation for the modeling the progression of the COVID-19 disease in large Indian cities.

As of now, they have carried out simulation for Mumbai and Bengaluru.

While Prof. Rajesh Sunderesan from IISc Bengaluru is leading the effort, the Mumbai teams Dr. Piyush Srivastava, Dr. Ramprasad Saptharishi, Dr. Prahladh Harsha along Prof Sandeep Juneja are part of the team.

The simulator builds a fine-grained replica of a city and mimics various interaction spaces such as households, schools, and workplaces.

The model also takes into account the population densities, age distribution, household size distribution, and origin-destination of workers, among others.

The model seeks to assess the effects of various regulatory interventions on the progression of the disease in the city.

Measures considered in the study include isolation of confirmed cases, home quarantine, social distancing for those aged above 65, full and partial closures of workplaces and schools, and various combinations of these measures over different time-frames.

"Currently, the simulator has been used with data from Bengaluru and Mumbai, but it is flexible enough to be extended to other cities," said Prof Juneja, adding that with more data coming in, in a real-time basis, the predictions will be more accurate.

Preliminary results suggest that to prevent a second wave of infection after the current lockdown, aggressive steps for tracing, isolation and containment of cases during the lockdown are needed, so as to minimize the spread of the infection in the city at the time lockdown restrictions are eased.

"However, in its current form, the simulator looks only at the public health impact of the various interventions and is not able to assess the economic and ethical issues that intertwine with the nationwide COVID-19 containment effort," said Prof Juneja.