In Gujarat, AAP rattles BJP while Congress struggles to get going

On Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi flagged off the first phase of the Ahmedabad Metro and took a ride in it. A beaming Modi was flanked by top leaders from the state BJP; and, as it happens on such carefully staged occasions, the PM mixed with the hoi polloi as well, including schoolkids.

While the train crisscrossed Ahmedabad, the BJP released pictures and videos of a saffron scarf-wearing autorickshaw driver praising Modi while travelling on the Metro.

Also Read: Autorickshaw driver, who invited Kejriwal for dinner, turns out to be 'PM Modi's fan'

The BJP had a specific target in mind when releasing the video: the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). It was at driver Vikram Dantani’s house that Arvind Kejriwal made an unscheduled stop and had the much-talked about dinner last month.

An embarrassed AAP tried to defend itself, saying it was a "cheap trick" by the BJP to dent the rising popularity of Kejriwal among Gujaratis. The party also attacked state BJP chief C R Paatil, claiming he would be sacked for failing to stop AAP's progress.

The video was the latest tussle between the ruling BJP and the AAP in the poll-bound state.

As the Gujarat Assembly polls inch closer, the BJP and the AAP are engaged in a bitter battle that is getting more vicious as the saffron party is said to be feeling the heat from the Kejriwal-led campaign, which is amplifying voices and incidents to embarrass the Bhupendra Patel-led government.

The BJP is using every trick from its poll playbook – like the rickshaw driver video – to hit back, a strategy that shows it is rattled by the aggressiveness of the AAP.

In the last couple of months, the state government has not had it easy. The Patel government has been ambushed by a series of protests by police and teachers; health, sanitation and anganwadi workers, and state transport and forest guards over many issues. The latest group to needle the Patel government was an association of cow shelter homes.

Also Read: Gujarat has country's longest coastline, but not efforts made for decades to develop it: PM Modi

Despite these setbacks, which happens every time around the polls, political observers say the BJP looks good to retain power.

The Kejriwal effect

Kejriwal arrived in Gujarat fresh from the landslide triumph in Punjab, where the party decimated rivals Delhi-style.

Hawking his unique brand of ideology-free welfarism, Kejriwal has definitely made the BJP and the Gujaratis sit up and take notice.

“When it comes to building a narrative, the AAP is much ahead of the Congress and even the BJP to some extent,” says Sarthak Bagchi, an assistant professor at Ahmedabad University, who keenly watches the state’s political developments.

Also Read: Anyone from AAP could now be arrested, BJP scared of losing Gujarat: Kejriwal

“The AAP is also able to find faultlines in the BJP's ‘Gujarat Model’ by highlighting the poor condition of schools, health, among others.”

On many occasions, after Kejriwal promised voters to fulfil their demands if AAP came to power, the BJP government was compelled to act by giving in to some of those demands including raising salaries, grade pay among others.

That's why the BJP, which remained indifferent to AAP's moves initially, has now started to attack it.

The BJP never created hurdles for Kejriwal's frequent visits until September 24, when the Vadodara civic body sent a bulldozer to demolish the portion of a party plot where the Delhi CM had addressed a town hall. The AAP could rent this property after 13 venue owners reportedly refused at the last minute allegedly due to pressure from the BJP.

While the ruling BJP tries to contain the rise of AAP, the main opposition party, the defection-hit Congress, remains a mere spectator.

Analysts believe the Congress has become somewhat "complacent" due to the status quo in power, which the AAP is trying to break. Unlike 2017, the Congress is yet to get its mojo back to create an anti-BJP atmosphere.

So far, the Congress is trying to 'copy' the AAP by selling the 'Rajasthan Model' of governance, but the rebellion by Ashok Gehlot’s loyalists means the party will have to find another poll pitch.

On the other hand, the AAP has chosen to weave a narrative around the "clean image" of Kejriwal and focus on education and health, like it did in Punjab and Delhi.

This strategy has left the BJP in a spot of bother as it can’t deploy its usual criticisms – minority appeasement, dynasty – to attack the AAP and restrict its popularity in urban and semi-urban centres, constituencies from where the BJP draws its core strength.

Bagchi says the AAP’s “strategic withdrawal from secularism and rallying behind patriotism” are helping it. “But what is to be seen is how much of this momentum gets translated into real votes,” he adds.

Analysts believe that defeating the Congress in rural areas has been an uphill task for the BJP despite having every resource at its disposal, whereas the AAP lacks leaders and dedicated cadre good enough to alter the status quo of the past three decades.

However, they all agree that the AAP may have a few legislators in the Gujarat Assembly by December, which would definitely rile the BJP.