Why parties are vying for Gujarat's tribal seats

With 27 of the Assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribe community, this is the only region in the state where the BJP has not seen much success

Gujarat is set to go to the polls in December, with the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) trying to challenge the BJP's two-decade dominance in the western state.

A key to victory this time around is the tribal belt in eastern Gujarat. With 27 of the Assembly seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) community, this is the only region in the state where the BJP has not seen much success. This time around, the BJP is hoping to make inroads in the region as the party expects the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP to pull away some of the Congress's votes. The grand old party, however, says that the tribal population will continue to vote for them as the people remember the "good work" done by previous Congress-led governments.

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As per the 2011 census, the tribal population in Gujarat was 89.17 lakh, around 15 per cent of its total population, and was largely spread across 14 eastern districts of the state.

In the 2017 elections, the Congress won 15 of the 27 ST-reserved seats, the BJP won eight, the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) of Chhotu Vasava bagged two seats and an independent candidate got one. In 2012, the Congress won 16 seats, the BJP won 10 and the Janata Dal (United) bagged one.

In 2007, before the delimitation when 26 seats were reserved for Scheduled Castes, the Congress emerged victorious with 14 seats, the BJP got 11 and the JD(U) won one seat. Vasava was in the JD(U) until 2012 and won in 2007 and 2012 on a JD(U) ticket. He then went on to form the BTP. The next contest could be a three-way split between the BJP, the Congress and new entrant the AAP.

Political experts believe that the Congress will maintain the upper hand in the tribal region in spite of a massive outreach by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. "The Congress has been dominant in tribal areas since the formation of the state," political observer Hari Desai told PTI. "It will remain a powerful force in tribal areas in spite of its weak show in many other parts of the state."

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Desai said the BJP, under Modi's leadership, had been working hard for 20 years to breach the Congress dominance in Gujarat's tribal areas but they had not succeeded. "This time also, the outreach by PM Modi and his party have been massive in tribal areas," he said but added that the 'Modi magic' seemed to be on the decline.

For the Congress, it is very important to keep its hold over the tribal pockets. The party organised a massive Rahul Gandhi rally in May this year and gave the post of the Leader of the Opposition to Sukhram Ratwa, a tribal MLA from Jetpur. "The tribal population votes for the Congress as they remember the good work done by us for their upliftment," said Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi. "We just don't make big promises like the BJP. They ruled for 27 years but failed to develop the tribal areas."

The BJP, meanwhile, has continued to pin its hopes on 'Modi magic'. "This time, we are going to win at least 20 seats from 27," said Minister for Tribal Development Naresh Patel. "The tribal people are more aware now and they want development. PM Modi's work has gained him popularity among the tribals."

And the potential of the AAP in the state still largely remains an unknown. The AAP had once tried to ally with the BTP to make inroads into tribal seats but was left hanging when that party withdrew from the deal. AAP convenor Kejriwal has addressed a few rallies in the region but his impact on the masses remains a question mark.

The elections to the 182-member Gujarat Assembly will be held in two phases next month, on Dec. 1 and 5.

(With agency inputs)