JOIN USWorst phase of Covid-19 in India may be over, says doctor
Eight months into the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country, the worst phase in India seems to be over, said Dr IS Gilada, an infectious diseases specialist and a leading HIV/AIDS consultant.
“It seems India has finally achieved the first important goal that is passing the peak! The Covid-19 peak may have passed in mid-September, possibly during 10-20 September 2020, considering various parameters,” said Dr Gilada, Secretary General of Mumbai-based Peoples Health Organisation (India).
According to him, to date, India has done over 8.1 crore tests and recorded 66,87,247 Covid-19 infections with a cumulative positivity yield (Covid-19 test positivity rate among tested samples) of 8.3 per cent.
So far, India has recorded 103,629 deaths due to Covid-19, of which 70 per cent were patients with co-morbidity.
India recorded 97,859 cases on September 16 -- the highest single-day number of Covid-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic.
Between September 9 and 19, the country recorded daily cases between 90,000 and 98,000.
From September 20 to October 1, India's recorded daily cases were between 80,000 and 90,000, except on September 28 when 69,671 cases were recorded.
After October 1, the recorded daily cases have been between 70,000 and 80,000.
“The downward trend is not linked to low testing numbers. In fact, the daily testing numbers have been on the higher side. Of the 8.1 crore total tests done, 3.1 crore were done in September itself, averaging 10,42,750 tests daily,” said Dr Gilada.
Looking at the parameter of active cases, the highest number of active cases was on 17 September, at 10,18,454, whereas it has been on a downward trend since then with 940,631 cases on September 30 and 920,740 on October 5, he said.
As regards the loss of lives, India recorded the highest number of daily deaths on September 15 at 1,283 (except for 2,006 on June 16; which was due to an adjustment of old unrecorded deaths).
The country recorded 886 deaths on October 5; which was the second-lowest since September 1, lowest being on September 28 at 777.
“Passing of the peak is indeed the most important goal; however, subsequent surge can come, as seen in several countries of Europe. India being a vast country, some states may have different peaks. However, the states that matter the most for influencing Indian Covid-19 statistics – viz. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu have passed the peak. But, we cannot lower our guards. Mask remains the most important tool, till we have a vaccine or cure or both,” added Dr Gilada.