A Covid-19 disaster in Bengal thanks to Puja & politics?

Big spurt in cases could come after Durga Puja and in November when political activities for the 2021 Assembly polls will pick up

Bengal could be facing the prospect of an explosion of Covid-19 cases in the coming weeks and months thanks to the recklessness of common folk, the administration, and politicians of all shades.

While pan India figures of the daily infected have come down, with the country reporting less than 50,000 daily cases for the first time in three months on October 20, Bengal is now recording among the highest number of daily cases. The question is whether post-Puja Bengal will become post-Onam Kerala that saw 126 per cent surge in Covid-19 cases after celebrating the festival. If it does, it will be a catastrophe because the death rate in Bengal (still around 2 per cent) is much higher than Kerala (less than 0.5 per cent).

The good thing is that the Calcutta High Court has made an effort to contain the crowding of the Durga Puja pandals by declaring them as no-entry zones for visitors. While some leaders of the ruling Trinamool Congress had shown some resentment against the verdict, all Opposition parties have welcomed it. Now it is to be seen whether the verdict will really deter Puja enthusiasts from hitting the roads or whether the order will be adhered to in semi-urban and rural areas.

Ironically, while the ruling party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC), was mobilising people by allotting a Rs 50 thousand grant (taxpayers’ money) to 37,000 clubs for organising Durga puja, the BJP dared to undermine the danger of disease itself. Just a few weeks ago Dilip Ghosh, the president of the Bengal unit of BJP, claimed Coronavirus was over, and restrictions were being imposed by the Mamata Banerjee government in the name of the epidemic to curb the scope of the poll campaign for the upcoming Assembly polls by BJP. Now, Ghosh is in hospital after being diagnosed as Covid-19 positive.

So far, the state administration has displayed scant concern about curbing the thronging of the Puja venues. Tens of thousands have visited markets, particularly the open ones commonly referred to as hawker’s markets, for Puja shopping throughout October. Before the High Court verdict, the crowding of pandals had begun as well, though ritualistically the puja starts on the sixth day of Navaratri (or Devi Paksha, the fortnight of the goddess). Amidst this ‘festive’ mood, Bengal saw the highest single-day spike in positive cases (3,992) on October 19.

Election wrangling to follow Durga Puja

While post-Puja Bengal may see a big spurt in coronavirus cases, it would not be the end of the story. Come November, the political activities for the upcoming Assembly election will pick up. The BJP has sensed victory, and it will not leave any stone unturned to capture the state. It may attempt to break the TMC one last time before the elections to create a crisis situation, something it has been trying unsuccessfully over the last year or so. It will want to undermine Mamata Banerjee, who has emerged as a chief opponent of Narendra Modi over the last six years. The ruling TMC, however, will not give in without a tough fight and ‘Didi’ is well known for her exceptional fighting instinct.

No one can expect a thaw in this political battle any time soon. So, if post-Puja numbers of daily Covid-19 go up way beyond the cases now, it could linger around that point for weeks or even months thereafter.

This second phase of danger, the months of the post-Puja political campaign, will see a different scenario in Bengal as compared to Kerala, which too will have Assembly election in April-May 2021 along with Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. But except in Bengal, nowhere else has an unconventional political pattern emerged. Only in Bengal will there be a no holds barred political fight between the defendant (TMC) and the new challenger (BJP). So, in all other states, parties can be expected to behave in a somewhat restrained way.

While the all-India average of the daily infected is expected to drop further, Bengal has the capacity to spoil it all in the coming weeks. A Central team of experts is supposed to visit the state to give suggestions, but it will have little effect if the inhabitants of the state themselves are unmindful about the danger to their vulnerable populations.

(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a Kolkata-based journalist and author of several books, including the recently published detective novel Mirchi Memsaab’s House of Faith)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.