Act before the climate does, or pay in heat, health and livelihoods

Earlier this year, the president of the world’s largest economy and the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs) announced the United States’ withdrawal from 66 global organisations and treaties, many affiliated with the United Nations, arguing that continued participation was “contrary to the interests of the US”.

Among these exits, the most striking was the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the parent treaty adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in June 1992, which has long served as the backbone of international climate cooperation and aims to bring nations together to fight against the climate crisis. The decision drew sharp global opprobrium, particularly from the developing countries, where climate vulnerability is highest and historical responsibility for emissions is lowest. 

More important than the withdrawal itself, however, is what such moves signal. When the world’s major economies step back from climate responsibility, they shape the global response to climate change. The transition away from fossil fuels slows, carbon-intensive growth remains the norm, and climate action is repeatedly deferred. For countries like India, this continued dependence on fossil fuels is already proving costly – visible in rising heatwaves, stressed agriculture, and mounting climate pressure.

India today has emerged as one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions. One of the gravest threats it faces is extreme heat. Heatwaves are not new to India, but their intensity has increased sharply over the past few decades. According to The Lancet Countdown report, nearly one-third of the heatwave days experienced by India in 2024 were attributable to human-induced climate change.

The economic consequences of this rising heat are severe. Heat exposure in 2024 alone resulted in the loss of an estimated 247 billion potential labour hours – most of them in agriculture and construction – leading to economic losses of around Rs 194 billion. For a country where a large share of employment remains informal and outdoor-based, extreme heat is not merely an environmental concern but a direct threat to livelihoods.

The impacts of heatwaves, however, extend far beyond the economy and agriculture. Extreme heat overwhelms the body’s ability to regulate temperature, increasing the risk of dehydration, heatstroke, cardiovascular stress, and even death -- particularly among the elderly, infants, and outdoor workers. During 2024-25, as many as 152 record-breaking extreme weather events were recorded across 61 countries, with life-threatening heat events becoming more intense than previously projected.

As Jeremy Farrar, Assistant Director-General at the World Health Organisation, noted, the climate crisis is fundamentally a health crisis, where “every fraction of a degree of warming costs lives and livelihoods.” The Lancet report also finds that heat-related mortality has increased by 23% globally since the 1990s, with an average of nearly 546,000 deaths each year.

These figures underscore the immense health, social, and economic costs of climate change. As Dr Marina Romanello of University College London, who led the Lancet report’s analysis, observed, the destruction of lives and livelihoods will continue to escalate unless the world decisively ends its dependence on fossil fuels.

Yet India remains deeply reliant on fossil fuels, despite progress in renewable energy deployment. According to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation’s Energy Statistics in India 2025, coal’s share in total energy generation rose to 79%, or 16,906 petajoules, in 2023-24, nearly two percentage points higher than the previous year.
Coal has consistently accounted for over 70% of India’s total energy production since 2014-15.

The health costs of this dependence are stark. The Lancet report estimates that fossil fuel-derived air pollution claimed 1.72 million lives in India – an increase of 38% since 2010. Fossil fuels accounted for 752,000 of these deaths in 2022 alone, while coal was responsible for 394,000 deaths, primarily from emissions linked to power generation. In India, coal continues to account for 46% of total energy supply and 72% of electricity generation, while renewables contribute just 2% to energy supply and 10% to electricity generation – highlighting the slow pace of structural transition.

But this is not India’s challenge alone. Globally, as human-driven warming rises from 1C above pre-industrial levels toward 1.5 degrees C this decade and potentially
2 degrees C, which many scientists predict could occur around mid-century unless governments make rapid cuts to emissions from oil, gas, and coal, temperature extremes are expected to intensify sharply. One study estimates that if the 2 degrees C threshold is crossed, the number of people exposed to extreme heat will rise from 1.54 billion in 2010 (23% of the global population) to 3.79 billion by 2050, or 41% of the projected world population. Countries at highest risk include India, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Bangladesh.

If fossil fuel dependence continues at the current pace, no part of the world will be able to escape the worsening heat. India, despite contributing a small fraction to historical carbon emissions, is bearing a disproportionate share of the burden. This reality highlights the limits of national efforts alone, even as India takes steps like rescheduling work hours, strengthening heat adaptation policies, and investing in heat-resilient infrastructure. These measures are necessary, but they are not sufficient in isolation.

Climate change is a global threat that demands collective action. Reducing dependence on fossil fuels must be central, both to slow warming and protect vulnerable populations. Major economies, bearing the historical responsibility, must lead, consistent with the Kyoto Protocol.

A fair and effective response requires both ambitious global emissions reductions and support for adaptation in the countries most affected. Only then can we hope to protect lives, livelihoods, and the future of the planet.

(The writer is a research student at St Stephen’s College, Delhi)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.