JOIN USAfghanistan-Taliban talks: Not easy giving peace a chance
The long-awaited negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban are underway in Doha from September 12. A recent announcement by Qatar indicated that all major hurdles have been resolved, thereby paving the way for the warring sides to meet face-to-face for the first time to negotiate peace and agree to a political transition.
The process gained momentum after President Ashraf Ghani ordered the release of a final batch of 400 Afghan Taliban prisoners. The US-Taliban peace deal signed in February 2020 had pledged to release 5,000 insurgent prisoners. Taliban had declared they would not start talks unless all their prisoners were released. Ghani’s government had reluctantly released most of the Taliban prisoners under pressure from the Donald Trump administration but had been holding on to six “hardcore” detainees (whose release was also opposed by France and Australia). They were reportedly transported to Doha “for direct supervision during the talks.” This facilitated the removal of the final hurdle for the start of the negotiations.
The Taliban delegation is led by its deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. In the recent past, the Taliban has made certain changes in its team composition and has included the hardliner, Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob, the son of its supreme leader Mullah Omar. On the Afghan government’s side, former chief executive, Abdullah Abdullah, is responsible for directing the peace negotiations with the Taliban, while Masoom Stanekzai, a former head of the Afghan intelligence agency, leads the Afghan team.
The talks kick-started in presence of officials from several countries and international organisations attending (or speaking virtually) at the commencement ceremony. The key speakers at the opening ceremony included Abdullah Abdullah, Mullah Baradar, and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Many countries including the US, Pakistan, India, Turkey, Germany, Qatar, and representatives from certain global bodies made remarks at the ceremony and called for an immediate comprehensive ceasefire. The speakers at the opening ceremony hailed the start of the peace talks as a “historic opportunity” and asked the two parties to keep an open mind during the exchange. Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar reiterated India’s support for “an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled process.”
Elusive peace
Despite the signing of the February peace deal, peace has largely remained elusive in Afghanistan. Taliban’s attacks on security forces and citizens have regularly made headlines. However, to keep the peace process on track, numerous attacks by the insurgent group have been conveniently overlooked and the slightest sign of progress has often been applauded as the harbinger of a breakthrough. Reasonable skepticisms have been brushed aside citing the necessity of bringing an end to the decades of war.
There has also been an eagerness to ignore the largely unreciprocated concessions that were made to get the Taliban to come to the table, so much so, that the insurgent group’s refusal to acknowledge the Afghan government as its principal interlocutor was also overlooked. During the multiple talks leading to the Khalilzad-Baradar accord of February, Taliban negotiators did not reveal any flexibility on any significant issue. On the contrary, they understood that by standing firm they could push Washington to yield on most key issues. It was Kabul, which was seen offering compromises time and again.
For adversaries locked in a war for decades, it’s never easy to negotiate peace. The meeting of the two sides for the intra-Afghan dialogue undoubtedly is a momentous step. But for any constructive result to come out of it, the difficult task of maintaining domestic and regional consensus will be necessary as will continued international support for the peace process.
As far as India is concerned, the prospect of a power-sharing arrangement between Kabul and the Taliban is not a desirable scenario for a country that has pledged $3 billion in assistance since 2001. To mitigate the risks to India’s continued presence in Afghanistan, India must set aside its reluctance to change its policies. It may need to urgently reposition its priorities based on the requirements of the changing circumstances.
Amrullah Saleh, the vice president of Afghanistan, has called the talks with Taliban “one of the most difficult peace negotiations in history”. He believes the discussions on ‘symbolism and values’ will be the most challenging part of the negotiation.
It is fair to say that the talks are merely the initial step in what will be at best a long and complex process. Therefore, any optimism has to be tempered.
(Anwesha Ghosh is Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs. She is the author of Identity and Marginality in India: Settlement Experience of Afghan Migrants (Routledge UK, 2019))
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.