Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA gamble and future of Dalit politics in UP

In politics, the contest is not only for the votes, but also for appropriating icons. Those who shape public memory often shape electoral outcomes. This truth is evident in Uttar Pradesh, where the legacy of politician and social reformer Kanshi Ram has become the centre of a new political struggle.

On March 15, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav will observe Kanshi Ram’s birth anniversary as ‘PDA Diwas’ — referring to the social coalition of Pichhda, Dalit, and Alpsankhyak (backward castes, Dalits, and minorities). The move is more than commemorative; it signals a strategic attempt to broaden the SP’s social base ahead of the 2027 Assembly polls.

This is not the first outreach. Ahead of the 2022 polls, the SP had launched the ‘Baba Saheb Vahini — named after B R Ambedkar — to reach out to Dalits. In April 2023, Yadav unveiled a statue of Kanshi Ram in Rae Bareli.

This fresh outreach has drawn sharp criticism from Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati, who insists Kanshi Ram’s legacy is inseparable from her party’s identity. She often recalls the 1995 state guest house incident to underline what she calls the SP’s historic hostility towards Dalits. The rivalry is, therefore, rooted not only in electoral competition, but also in memory, mistrust, and competing claims over the Bahujan movement.

Yet the political context has changed dramatically. The BSP, which won a majority in the 2007 Assembly polls with over 30% vote share, has steadily declined — down to 12.7% and one MLA in the 2022 Assembly polls, and 9.3% in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, with no seats.

In Uttar Pradesh, the Dalits are nearly 23% of the electorate, but are politically fragmented, especially after the BSP’s decline. Jatavs, Mayawati’s core vote based, make up about 12%, but the non-Jatavs have drifted to other parties. Today, Dalit votes are split among the BSP, the BJP, the SP-Congress, and Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party. The fragmentation of the Dalit vote has opened space for new strategies.

Since 2014, the BJP has successfully attracted sections of non-Jatav Dalits through welfare schemes and Hindutva. The SP, long seen as a Yadav-Muslim party, now seeks to shed that image. Its PDA formula aims to attract non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits.

In the 2024 general elections, the SP-Congress alliance made significant gains, winning 37 seats, its best ever. Candidate selection made the difference: fewer Yadavs and Muslims, more non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits. The symbolic victory in Ayodhya, where Dalit leader Awadhesh Prasad won from the Faizabad seat, a general constituency, underscored the dividends of inclusion.

Yet challenges remain. Without the Congress, the SP’s ability to woo the Bahujan samaj is limited. Post-Mandal UP has seen caste dominance shift from ritual elites to regionally-dominant agrarian OBCs, producing new Dalit-OBC tensions.

Memories of the SP’s past actions, such as reversing district names honouring Dalit icons in 2012, complicate reconciliation efforts. The failed 2019 SP-BSP alliance, popularly called the ‘Bua-Babua’ coalition, showed that arithmetic does not always translate into chemistry; trust at the grassroots cannot be built overnight.

For Mayawati, the immediate challenge is more fundamental. Even her core Jatav base looks shaky. Internal turbulence, including the brief expulsion and reinduction of her nephew Akash Anand, has created uncertainty. Defections and a weakened organisational network have eroded the BSP’s strength. Meanwhile, Dalit voters have more options: some with the BJP, others experimenting with the SP-Congress, and in western UP, Chandrashekhar Azad has emerged as a vocal youth leader, appealing particularly to Jatav voters.

The SP’s renewed emphasis on Kanshi Ram is thus part of a larger contest over Bahujan memory. It seeks moral legitimacy by associating with a leader who transformed Dalit identity into a powerful political force.

However, there is a risk. A sharper tilt towards PDA politics could consolidate upper-caste voters further behind the BJP. Electoral coalitions often produce counter-coalitions.

The future of Dalit politics in UP remains open. The BSP is weakened but not irrelevant. The SP is expanding but still faces credibility gaps. The BJP has constructed a wide social coalition, but it now faces the challenge of managing internal caste tensions that surfaced following the UGC guidelines.

The deeper question is whether the politics of icons will translate into structural empowerment. Commemorations, statues, and anniversaries matter in a society where dignity has long been denied.

Dalit politics in UP is more open and contested than ever. The era of a single ‘Bahujan’ party monopolising the Dalit vote is over.

As parties compete to claim the legacy of Kanshi Ram, the future belongs to those who can move beyond tokenism and offer real representation. The battle for symbols has begun. Whether this competition leads to meaningful power-sharing and succeeds in convincing Dalits will be the defining question on the road to 2027.

Mahendra Kumar Singh is a political commentator and teaches Political Science at DDU Gorakhpur University, Uttar Pradesh

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH)