All eyes on the ‘enemy within’ as NDA and I.N.D.I.A bloc face off in Bihar

Battlelines are drawn for a straight, fierce, and bitter contest between the NDA and the I.N.D.I.A bloc in Bihar, for the two-phase election scheduled from November 6 to 11. However, amid tall claims of “all is well” within both camps, it appears that “nothing is well” on either side of the fence.

Internal dissension and rumblings plague both alliances. In NDA, the JD(U) chief and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is reportedly unhappy with the BJP’s attempts to cut him down to size.

First, he has not been officially declared the chief ministerial candidate, even though the BJP depends heavily on him to win Bihar. Secondly, for the first time in 25 years, the BJP and JD(U) will contest on equal number of seats, effectively doing away with the ‘big brother’ tag for Nitish and his party. Thirdly, the BJP’s decision to extend an olive branch to Chirag Paswan by allotting him more seats than expected has not gone down well with Nitish.

Discordant notes 

The smaller NDA allies are equally disgruntled. Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha have openly expressed their displeasure over being allotted a meagre number of seats compared to Paswan. “All is not well within the NDA” remarked Kushwaha, who heads the fledgling Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) and remains an unreliable ally. Manjhi, who has pledged loyalty to Nitish Kumar and Prime Minster Narendra Modi, too voiced his unhappiness, warning that “the NDA will suffer when the time comes”.

The BJP, however, has remained silent on its allies’ grievances, focussed solely on one goal: to win Bihar, the only state where it has yet to have its own chief minister.

Winning Bihar requires sound arithmetic. In the 2020 Assembly election, both the NDA and the Mahagatbandhan (the Hindi version of the I.N.D.I.A bloc) secured around 37% of the vote, with just a 0.03% difference between them. The NDA won 125 seats, while the Mahagatbandhan was restricted to 110 -- losing a few seats by narrow margins of 12 to 900 votes.

That was when Chirag Paswan was not part of the NDA and Mukesh Sahni’s VIP was not in the Mahagatbandhan. With Chirag in its fold, the NDA hopes to push its vote share to 40%, banking on the LJP (R)’s influence among the 6% Paswan vote base. The Mahagatbandhan, meanwhile, aims to raise its share from 37% to 40% with Mukesh Sahni’s support, as the mercurial VIP chief claims to command a strong following among the numerically strong Mallahs (boatmen and fishermen) community.

The RJD-led Mahagatbandhan, along with the Congress, CPI, CPM, CPI-ML and the VIP, is presenting a united front. 

PK, the third angle 

Adding a third angle and a twist is Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj. While the JD(U) and the BJP are contesting 101 seats each, the LJP(R) 29, and Manjhi and Kushwaha six each, PK, as Prashant Kishor is fondly called, has fielded candidates in all 243 seats -- a feat unmatched even by major parties like the RJD, BJP or Congress.

“PK’s intentions are good. His focus on issues like employment and migration is also commendable. However, the poll strategist-turned-politician has erred on three fronts. First, he should have been himself the party president. (How many people know that Uday Singh, former MP, is Jan Suraaj national president?). Second, he should have declared himself the chief ministerial face if he is really serious about giving the people of Bihar (who are tired of Lalu’s 15 years and Nitish’s 20 years of rule) a viable alternative. Third, he has refused to contest the poll, thereby sending a wrong message,” said veteran political commentator and editor of a national magazine Giridhar Jha.

“PK’s Jan Suraaj will attract some votes, but not enough to romp home. At best, he will end up as a vote-cutter. Whom he damages more, will be known only after the election results are analysed,” the political expert added.

“In theory, the NDA has an edge with Nitish doling out one sop after another for women and youth. Out of 7.4 crore voters (after the Special Intensive Revision) in Bihar, 3.5 crore are women. From enforcement of prohibition to school uniform and financial aid for girl students, besides 35% jobs reserved for women, the women voters may vote for Nitish in a massive way,” says another veteran political scientist Ajay Kumar who has covered Bihar since 1995.

“However, if RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav succeeds in deftly stitching his alliance, and lures youth and women through his promise of providing a government job for every family without one could be a game changer, just like it happened in 2020 when Tejashwi promised to provide jobs to unemployed and he did it during his brief stint as Deputy CM of Bihar from August 2022 to January 2024,” said the political scientist.

As Bihar readies for an electoral battle, Nitish Kumar faces the burden of incumbency, Tejashwi Yadav the test of maturity, and Prashant Kishor the challenge of translating strategy into success. As discontent simmers within the two major camps, it remains to be seen who can persuade the silent voter — the women, the youth, and the disenchanted — that their future lies with them.