As wars rage, a deeper crisis builds beneath geopolitics: Water drought

Even as the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupts the global supply of oil and gas, a far graver danger looms: depleting water resources. Cities at risk include national capitals such as Tehran in Iran, Jakarta in Indonesia and Delhi in India.

Tehran, now under military attack, is reeling from acute water scarcity, with major reservoirs operating at barely 8-9% capacity. Six consecutive years of drought, compounded by over-extraction of groundwater, inefficient distribution and rapid population growth, have pushed the city towards what is being termed ‘water bankruptcy’. The Iranian government is even considering shifting its capital.

In Indonesia, the planned shift from Jakarta—sinking at 15-25 cm annually—to Nusantara, located over 1,000 km away on Borneo Island, is already underway. The crisis stems from rising sea levels, excessive extraction of groundwater and intense flooding. The move is estimated to cost over $33 billion and is expected to be completed by 2045.

Closer home, Delhi’s water supply is under severe stress. Despite being on the Yamuna’s banks, a city that once enjoyed a 24/7 water supply now rations water as the polluted river has become unfit for consumption. Delhi depends heavily on Haryana and UP. Other Indian cities—Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Pune—also face acute water shortages.

Globally, regions such as North Africa, the Middle East and South Asia are under high water stress. Cities like Cape Town, Cairo and Beijing, along with Los Angeles, Melbourne and São Paulo, are at risk. 

As early as 1985, Egypt’s then Foreign Minister Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who later became Secretary-General of the United Nations, warned that future Middle East conflicts would centre on water. In 1995, another Egyptian, Ismail Sarageldin of the World Bank, echoed this, predicting that while the 20th-century wars were fought over oil, the 21st-century wars would be over water.

Today’s conflicts may be driven by geopolitics and energy, but water is emerging as the underlying fault line. Energy fuels development; without water, life itself halts.

Water conflicts—between nations, states and communities—are already a source of tension. The Nile is shared between Egypt and Ethiopia; the Tigris and Euphrates are shared by Iraq, Syria and Turkey. In South Asia, the Indus and Ganga link India with Pakistan and Bangladesh, respectively, under formal treaties, while transboundary rivers with China lack comprehensive agreements, raising concerns over upstream interventions.

Within India, water-sharing agreements exist between states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu for Cauvery and between Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Maharashtra for Krishna waters. But when rains fail and farmers suffer from water shortage, conflicts break out, at times with serious consequences, as we have witnessed in the case of reservoirs across the Cauvery getting dry. 

Rapid urbanisation is deepening the crisis. Demand for potable and non-potable water is rising, and many cities face the prospect of ‘water drought’. A 2018 BBC report listed 11 cities across the globe at risk of running out of water: Beijing, Cairo, Jakarta, Moscow, Istanbul, Mexico City, London, Miami, São Paulo, Tokyo and the only Indian city, Bengaluru. UN-endorsed projections warn that global freshwater demand could exceed supply by 40% by 2030.

Amid war and the energy crisis, the urgency of water must not be overlooked. International cooperation to resolve disputes and honour treaties is essential, as is cooperation within countries.

Cities must fix ageing infrastructure through investments in treatment plants, pipelines and digital leak detection. Conservation measures—rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge and desalination—must be scaled up, alongside efforts to curb wastage.

Several countries offer exemplary models: Singapore in recycling, the Netherlands in flood control, and Nordic nations in maintaining water quality. Saudi Arabia has advanced desalination, while Cape Town and Stockholm have reduced water consumption significantly. Israel stands out, recycling nearly 90% of its wastewater and operating extensive desalination systems.

In India, Bengaluru has made strides in lake rejuvenation, thanks largely to the efforts of civil society organisations. The Bengaluru Water Supply and Sewerage Board recently won the prestigious World Water Award for sustainable water management from the International Water Association (IWA), recognising its achievements in lake rejuvenation, rainwater harvesting and reducing non-revenue water. It also bagged the Climate Smart Utilities Award 2023, awarded by the IWA, for reducing carbon footprint, improving energy efficiency and adopting innovative water management practices in a changing climate. 

Given the twin pressures of energy and water scarcity, integrated WATERGY approaches—linking water and energy efficiency—are vital. The United Nations has launched an Alliance Watergy programme to address municipal water challenges through energy and water efficiency partnerships. A Watergy International Group based in Abu Dhabi has developed technology for reducing global warming and boosting green energy production.

With global initiatives already underway, the time is ripe to adopt such strategies across major cities.  

(The writer is a former chief secretary, Government of Karnataka)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.