Balancing women’s choice and State’s interests

Should declining fertility force the State to intervene in reproductive decisions?

For decades, the world has grappled with the fear of an impending human apocalypse brought about by rapid population growth. This fear sparked a great number of debates and discussions, some of which led to the formation of family planning programmes across the world. These programmes primarily focused on promoting contraceptive usage to delay the intended pregnancies and most importantly, curb the unintended ones. As a result, global fertility started to decline at an unprecedented rate which is now being considered one of humanity’s biggest challenges.

The global total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped from around five children per woman in 1950 to 2.3 children per woman in 2023. Similarly, India, where rapid population growth was once a concern for the world, was able to lower its TFR from 4.8 to 2.0 between 1950 and 2021. The developed nations in particular are facing a deep crisis.

The TFR has plummeted well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman for countries such as South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Germany, Spain, the UK, the US and many others. The repercussions are many – rapid ageing, labour shortage, strain on economic resources to support social security schemes, and overall economic slowdown.

The success of family planning programmes, however, was never solely responsible for the global fertility decline. Immediately post-World War II, there was a ‘baby boom’; fertility rates rose sharply as births delayed due to the war and tension eventually took place once stability was restored. In the following decades, there were multiple socio-economic changes in the developed countries in the form of increased literacy, development in women’s status and broader attitudinal shifts in individuals, all of which resulted in the dramatic decline in fertility. Hence the success of family planning programmes was an outcome of broader socio-economic and cultural shifts occurring across societies. Improvements in education, growing career aspirations driven by rising individualism, and the increasing costs of child-rearing prompted individuals to delay marriage and childbirth, leading to a dramatic decline in fertility.

The prescription for low fertility is thus far from simple. History has shown that fertility rates are difficult to reverse, as they are driven by deep-rooted societal shifts that cannot be easily undone. So far, efforts by various countries to reverse fertility trends – such as offering cash incentives and implementing child-friendly policies – have largely failed.

The failure of government efforts to reverse declining fertility underscores the point that the decision to have children ultimately rests with individuals and families. However, this gives rise to a fundamental conflict between personal reproductive choices and state concerns over demographic trends.

Should states, meant to uphold individual rights, intervene in deeply personal decisions like childbearing? Or should women, who have long fought for autonomy and equality, prioritise national interests over their choices?

Low fertility and population ageing are two sides of the same coin, and India is no exception to this global trend. As fertility rates decline across most states, the proportion of elderly citizens is steadily rising. India’s elderly population, currently around 10%, is projected to double to over 20% by 2050.

While improvements in healthcare and life expectancy contribute towards population ageing, the declining fertility reduces the proportion of young people entering the workforce, preventing the natural replenishment of the workforce. With fewer working-age individuals to support a growing retired population, it will increase the strain on healthcare and social security systems. Unlike developed nations, which grew rich before they aged, India faces the daunting risk of growing old before becoming prosperous.

Question of balance

As India grapples with declining fertility, the state faces a difficult question: Should it intervene in reproductive decisions to address this serious demographic concern, or should it uphold the individual’s right to choose, as it is expected to? History has shown that fertility trends are influenced by personal preferences and broader societal shifts rather than policy interventions alone.

Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Italy have introduced pro-natalist policies such as cash incentives, extended parental leave, and subsidised childcare; yet their fertility rates continue to decline. China, once known for its infamous ‘One-Child Policy’ to curb high fertility, now faces severe consequences of a rapidly ageing population. In an effort to reverse this trend, it has repeatedly revised its policies, but with little success in boosting birth rates. Attempts to push women towards higher fertility can also backfire, as seen in South Korea, where excessive pro-natalist messaging by the state sparked public backlash.

The challenge for India, therefore, is not simply to boost birth rates, but to do so without encroaching on personal freedoms or reinforcing traditional gender roles that place the burden of reproduction solely on women.

At the heart of this debate lies a fundamental question: Should women be expected to prioritise national interests over their personal aspirations? Particularly, in this country, women have fought hard for career opportunities, economic independence, and reproductive autonomy for decades. Forcing them into having more children, either through incentives or systemic pressure would only undermine the hard-won gains in gender equality.

For India to arrive at a solution, a balanced approach is required. It must not repeat the mistake it made in the formative years of its family planning programme – focusing more on targets and numbers over the root causes.

Instead of focusing on increasing fertility rates alone, policymakers must create an environment where having children is both a viable choice and a desirable one. This includes ensuring affordable childcare, equal career opportunities for both parents, work-life balance, and shared parenting responsibilities.

If India truly wants to secure its demographic future, it must move beyond numerical targets and focus on holistic social reforms that empower individuals to make reproductive choices without the fear of economic or societal penalties.

(Paramita is a doctoral fellow at the International Institute for
Population Sciences, Mumbai; Nitin is a research intern at the Indian Council of Social Science Research, Delhi)