Bengal’s vote and the Dhaka reset

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s historic rise to power in West Bengal could prove to be a double-edged sword for India-Bangladesh relations. A lot now depends on how the party balances its domestic political agenda, wherein it has relentlessly targeted Bangladeshis as “infiltrators,” with the strategic necessity to build strong ties with Dhaka.

India has already signalled its intent to smooth over bilateral friction by opting for a political appointee, former Union minister Dinesh Trivedi, as its envoy to Bangladesh. By selecting Trivedi, New Delhi is hopeful that a seasoned politician can transcend hurdles that often stymie career diplomats in dealing with foreign political leadership.

However, the reset that the two countries are seeking since the Tarique Rahman-led government took charge in Dhaka in February will not be easy. The BJP’s sharp rhetoric on illegal migrants, which reached a fever pitch during the recent Assembly elections in West Bengal and Assam, poses a challenge.

Recent remarks by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who boasted about Bangladeshis being “pushed back” under the cover of darkness from the Indian side, underscore this tension. Dhaka was swift to respond, describing the comments as disparaging while summoning the acting Indian High Commissioner to register a formal protest.

Sarma’s remarks were not surprising, in sync as they were with the BJP’s concerted campaign against ghuspaithiye (infiltrators) from Bangladesh. A few years ago, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who was then the BJP president, described Bangladeshi migrants as “termites.”

While the BJP has used the illegal migration issue to fuel its relentless, strident discourse against minorities and reap huge electoral benefits, it is viewed with deep apprehension by the Muslim-majority Bangladesh.

Undoubtedly, India for decades has grappled with illegal migration from Bangladesh, which has altered demographics in some areas and posed genuine national security challenges. While this issue needs to be addressed by both sides with sustained dialogue, the BJP leadership’s frequent provocative remarks only serve to fuel the anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh.

Both Assam and West Bengal, which share long and porous borders with Bangladesh, have been polarised by the BJP’s campaign against illegal migrants and the need for their mass deportations. With its own government now in place in West Bengal, the Centre could well press ahead with border fencing and implement the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and National Register of Citizens (NRC).

Such measures, however, may adversely impact a relationship in a state of normalisation. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led government in Dhaka will be far less accommodating than the previous Sheikh Hasina regime.

New regime, new challenges

Under the India-leaning Hasina, Dhaka was quite responsive to New Delhi’s concerns – be it on connectivity, cracking down on North-East militants sheltering on Bangladeshi soil, dealing with China while remaining mindful of India’s strategic interests, and not creating much fuss about New Delhi’s inability to deliver the Teesta water-sharing treaty or bridge the huge trade deficit.

Tarique Rahman, Prime Minister for the first time, is under pressure to deliver in a country hobbled by economic woes and unemployment. With a resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami as the main Opposition, the Rahman government knows that any overtures to New Delhi may come with the Islamist outfit further whipping up anti-India sentiments.

While the BNP has historically held an anti-India posture, Rahman has refrained, so far, from hostile rhetoric, knowing well that the two neighbours’ strategic interests are inextricably intertwined. But his patience may run thin.

This could drive Bangladesh closer to a waiting China. Bangladesh foreign minister Khalilur Rahman’s trip to China, soon after he visited India, signals to New Delhi this potential pivot. India, therefore, will need to tread carefully and ensure the issue of illegal migrants does not damage the overall relationship with Bangladesh.

With the Trinamool Congress’s 15-year reign in West Bengal over, the Teesta Pact is expected to return to the centre stage. It was held up owing to resistance from the then chief minister, Mamata Banerjee. Dhaka has already stated its wish that the proposed pact be removed from the back burner.

Both Delhi and Dhaka know they need each other to protect their strategic and economic interests in the region. The BNP government has emphasised to India that it wants a “mutually beneficial” relationship. It has also enunciated a policy of ‘Bangladesh First’, marking clear red lines regarding its national interests. India, too, must deftly balance its domestic politics with its strategic imperatives and foreign policy. For starters, the shrill political rhetoric against “infiltrators” needs to be drastically toned down.

The writer is a senior journalist.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)