<p>After 15 months of fighting, Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement which came into effect on January 19. Yet, the fact that it is not the first ceasefire between the two – and probably won’t be the last – is a sobering thought. The question ‘what solution will end the conflict permanently?’ remains unanswered, and with the shock-waves of the most recent war, the prospects have become increasingly gloomy. The region has been plagued with hostility in the past as well, but this particular war with the use of modern technologies has changed the landscape both physically as well as politically. Three key issues are likely to impact the future of the region.</p>.<p>Firstly, large parts of Palestinian territory, particularly the Gaza Strip, have been physically decimated. In addition to needing almost everything rebuilt, the annihilation of the Hamas leadership has also left a political void in the region. Prior to the war, the Palestinian leadership was split along factional lines, with the two most prominent being the Palestinian Authority (PA), a more moderate and diplomacy-oriented faction that primarily controls the West Bank, and Hamas, a more radical political group with militant leanings governing the Gaza Strip.</p>.<p>Since the start of the war, Hamas’ influence has grown, especially in the Gaza Strip, while the PA has lost some of its legitimacy and faced criticism for not being able to effectively confront Israel. While there have been many calls for unity between the two factions, their historical and ideological differences have made unity difficult. </p><p>This is despite the fact that they will be working together in a joint committee after the war. In the last year and a half, many senior Hamas leaders, as well as Hamas fighters, have been killed. The power vacuum left by the absence of central figures of the organisation could lead to unrest after the war, and give violent factions the opportunity to try and seize power.</p>.<p>Secondly, Israel’s barrage of attacks across the Gaza Strip, the tremendous loss of Palestinian lives and Israel’s inability to maintain a constant military presence in the region or establish a form of governance in Gaza have all left the surviving Palestinians with deep resentment towards Israel. An entire generation – or what remains of it – has missed out on educational and career opportunities, and will find themselves at a disadvantage. While the rebuilding of Gaza continues, there is always the risk of the underlying anger triggering a fresh wave of violence. This possibility exists on both sides of the divide.</p>.<p><strong>Hope in the time of despair</strong></p>.<p>And finally, regardless of the ceasefire deal, pervasive issues between Israel and Palestine that have existed for over a century remain unresolved. Most pressing of all are the disputes over Palestinian sovereignty. Both Israel and Palestine claim Jerusalem as the capital, an issue that is deeply contentious since it is rooted in religious sentiments. </p><p>Moreover, Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which the International Court of Justice has termed “illegal”, will continue to add to the existing tensions. The many cycles of violence that have been initiated by both sides since the Balfour Declaration in 1917 now serve as baggage that must be shed if efforts towards peace have to move forward.</p>.<p>Furthermore, broader regional frictions, such as between Iran and Israel and Israel and Yemen, will continue to impact the conflict. These dynamics can result in other players undermining peace efforts to serve their own interests. What now, then? Although history makes it seem unviable, the way forward seems to be the recognition of Palestine on Israel’s part as an independent state. Both parties need to agree on their borders and honour the agreement – settlements on either side beyond the boundaries also need to be addressed. The question whether Jerusalem is a shared or dual-capital city needs to be resolved as well.</p>.<p>Additionally, sharing resources, especially water, needs to be fairly negotiated, given that both rely on the mountain aquifer, the coastal aquifer and the Jordan River basin. Finally, both sides need to make security assurances. Palestine needs to know there will be no more occupation or military incursions, and Israel needs to be assured that there will be no more terrorist attacks. While this may seem like unrealistic hope for the region, perhaps, the time has come for a leap of faith.</p>.<p><br><em>(The writer is a junior research analyst at the Takshashila Institution)</em></p>
<p>After 15 months of fighting, Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement which came into effect on January 19. Yet, the fact that it is not the first ceasefire between the two – and probably won’t be the last – is a sobering thought. The question ‘what solution will end the conflict permanently?’ remains unanswered, and with the shock-waves of the most recent war, the prospects have become increasingly gloomy. The region has been plagued with hostility in the past as well, but this particular war with the use of modern technologies has changed the landscape both physically as well as politically. Three key issues are likely to impact the future of the region.</p>.<p>Firstly, large parts of Palestinian territory, particularly the Gaza Strip, have been physically decimated. In addition to needing almost everything rebuilt, the annihilation of the Hamas leadership has also left a political void in the region. Prior to the war, the Palestinian leadership was split along factional lines, with the two most prominent being the Palestinian Authority (PA), a more moderate and diplomacy-oriented faction that primarily controls the West Bank, and Hamas, a more radical political group with militant leanings governing the Gaza Strip.</p>.<p>Since the start of the war, Hamas’ influence has grown, especially in the Gaza Strip, while the PA has lost some of its legitimacy and faced criticism for not being able to effectively confront Israel. While there have been many calls for unity between the two factions, their historical and ideological differences have made unity difficult. </p><p>This is despite the fact that they will be working together in a joint committee after the war. In the last year and a half, many senior Hamas leaders, as well as Hamas fighters, have been killed. The power vacuum left by the absence of central figures of the organisation could lead to unrest after the war, and give violent factions the opportunity to try and seize power.</p>.<p>Secondly, Israel’s barrage of attacks across the Gaza Strip, the tremendous loss of Palestinian lives and Israel’s inability to maintain a constant military presence in the region or establish a form of governance in Gaza have all left the surviving Palestinians with deep resentment towards Israel. An entire generation – or what remains of it – has missed out on educational and career opportunities, and will find themselves at a disadvantage. While the rebuilding of Gaza continues, there is always the risk of the underlying anger triggering a fresh wave of violence. This possibility exists on both sides of the divide.</p>.<p><strong>Hope in the time of despair</strong></p>.<p>And finally, regardless of the ceasefire deal, pervasive issues between Israel and Palestine that have existed for over a century remain unresolved. Most pressing of all are the disputes over Palestinian sovereignty. Both Israel and Palestine claim Jerusalem as the capital, an issue that is deeply contentious since it is rooted in religious sentiments. </p><p>Moreover, Israeli settlements in the West Bank, which the International Court of Justice has termed “illegal”, will continue to add to the existing tensions. The many cycles of violence that have been initiated by both sides since the Balfour Declaration in 1917 now serve as baggage that must be shed if efforts towards peace have to move forward.</p>.<p>Furthermore, broader regional frictions, such as between Iran and Israel and Israel and Yemen, will continue to impact the conflict. These dynamics can result in other players undermining peace efforts to serve their own interests. What now, then? Although history makes it seem unviable, the way forward seems to be the recognition of Palestine on Israel’s part as an independent state. Both parties need to agree on their borders and honour the agreement – settlements on either side beyond the boundaries also need to be addressed. The question whether Jerusalem is a shared or dual-capital city needs to be resolved as well.</p>.<p>Additionally, sharing resources, especially water, needs to be fairly negotiated, given that both rely on the mountain aquifer, the coastal aquifer and the Jordan River basin. Finally, both sides need to make security assurances. Palestine needs to know there will be no more occupation or military incursions, and Israel needs to be assured that there will be no more terrorist attacks. While this may seem like unrealistic hope for the region, perhaps, the time has come for a leap of faith.</p>.<p><br><em>(The writer is a junior research analyst at the Takshashila Institution)</em></p>
