Whatever be the verdict, Bihar is poised at the threshold of change. Nitish Kumar may yet end up becoming the Chief Minister by leading his alliance for the fourth time. But, even in his possible last hurrah, the shadow of disappointment will sit heavily on his mind. Portents from one of India's most socially-fractured state suggest that history shall not remember him as the man who institutionalised incorruptible and efficient governance in the state to live up to his preferred moniker, Sushashan Babu. Rather he would be recalled as the man who facilitated the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as one of the two principal parties in a bipolar polity.
The situation has undergone a sea-change from what appeared even days after the Election Commission of India called for the country's first poll in the Covid era, when it appeared that it would be a stroll through the park for the incumbent. The biggest change is, of course, fear doing the vanishing trick. From Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party colleague downwards, every political leader of any worth has abandoned the path of caution and entered the poll fray as if the pandemic has been overcome.
Instead of expectations that this would primarily be a virtual campaign, it has turned out to be as 'real' as it has always been – boisterous crowds rubbing shoulders with one another and the rush to get closer than others to the star campaigner. Modi had an opportunity to call for caution in his address to the nation on October 20, but limited himself to asking people to be careful during the festival season – there was no mention of preventing overcrowding during electioneering.
One of the primary reasons why Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal (U) faced no rough weather in elections since 2005, was easy transfer of votes between the bases of the BJP and his party. Even in 2015, grassroots workers of JD(U) and Rashtriya Janata Dal overcame a decade of hostility in the face of common motivation to defeat BJP. The alliance between BJP and JD(U) this time however, is not so rock solid. Mutual suspicions have cracked the edifice and the undercurrent of strain has not been overcome, either at the level of leadership or among cadre.
Yet, the alliance continues at the official level because of compulsions of realpolitik. But, while leaders present a picture of bonhomie, it is not so simple to forge unity on ground. Nitish Kumar appears likely to be the one who would pay a heavy price for this. This was indicated in a pre-poll survey conducted by the Centre for Studies in Developing Societies and the findings should worry the chief minister.
The CSDS has claimed that 37 per cent BJP voters don’t want Nitish Kumar back as CM. Another 23 per cent of core BJP voters are expected to vote for candidates of 'others' – this includes Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party and another 6 per cent may even vote for RJD-Congress-Left candidates. The sense among people that Paswan is propped up by BJP and the rising anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar for deficient handling of the pandemic and its socio-economic impact may result in NDA collectively failing to hold on to their core vote bank.
The deficiency may be as high as 30 per cent of its core vote because JD(U) workers voters too are unlikely to be very enthusiastic to ensure transfer of all their votes for the BJP. Nitish Kumar is not unaware of this. In an uncharacteristic response, he shouted back at the audience at an election rally in Parsa constituency in Saran district after some people in his audible range started chanting 'Lalu Yadav zindabad'. Losing one's cool on an occasion when political leaders put the foot of exemplary behaviour forward, is indication of panic setting in.
Further worry for Nitish Kumar comes in the form of the CSDS findings on personal popularity which reiterates people's mood assessed previously by Prashnam, a start-up which conducts quick surveys using an AI-based feedback engine. The initiative of tech-entrepreneur Rajesh Jain, who pioneered BJP's Mission 272+ campaign in 2014, pegged Tejashwi Yadav's personal popularity higher than the chief minister’s. While CSDS put Nitish Kumar ahead in personal appeal, his lead is barely 4 per cent. The extent of crowds and these figures are indicative of Yadav Junior's emergence from his father's shadow. It demonstrates that Lalu Yadav is possibly not being 'missed' as much as anticipated and that Tejashwi is striking the right chord with job promises and constant undermining of the chief minister's performance.
Modi's popularity however remains ahead of others but the worry for BJP would be that the gap between those satisfied with his performance and those not, has reduced substantially since the last measure in 2015. On its own the BJP has never secured a vote share that would enable it to form a government on its own. It's best bet for the future lies in its capacity to chip away from the JD(U)’s vote and Modi's personal draw.
Nothing during elections, especially those in Bihar, can be taken at face value. Despite BJP stalwarts stating that LJP is not part of the NDA, Paswan's theatrical utterances, that Modi resides in his heart and he can rip open his chest, a la Lord Hanuman, to prove this, will only further confuse the BJP voter in constituencies where the JD(U) nominee is in the fray. It remains to be seen if Modi personally takes down Paswan on his claims in his speeches. His silences or utterances, as seen in the past, have the capacity to alter the course of the polls. But in his possible role as Nitish Kumar's saviour lies the downsizing of the chief minister, at least in times to come.
The Mahagathbandhan too has its worries, the biggest being the split in the anti-incumbent vote. Asaduddin Owaisi has a past of splitting the anti-BJP vote and the presence of the coalition he heads cannot be ignored. But if political polarisation reaches the level of 2015, AIMIM's high-decibel campaign notwithstanding, it may again draw a blank. Expect nothing but for the political maze to get further complicated with parties and leaders striking beneath-the-table-deals.
(Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is a Delhi-based journalist and author. His latest book is RSS: Icons Of The Indian Right. He has also written Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times (2013))
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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