<p>On March 30, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, with folded hands, bowed before Union Home Minister Amit Shah—a moment laden with contrast. The Janata Dal (United) strongman, now visibly weakened both physically and mentally, reiterated for the umpteenth time that he had “dumped the NDA twice and joined the Mahagatbandhan but won’t repeat such mistakes ever again”.</p>.<p>Nitish, until a decade ago, portrayed himself as a potential challenger to Narendra Modi, particularly after decisively defeating the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections. Yet on Sunday, he appeared meek and shaken, his confidence eroded.</p>.<p>This is precisely the position the Modi-Shah combine always sought—to render him mellowed down and helpless—though they would not state it openly.</p>.<p>Amit Shah, an astute politician, undoubtedly understood why Nitish was pledging loyalty to the BJP-led NDA. But he must also recall that in 2022, upon rejoining the Grand Alliance (or Mahagatbandhan, as the Opposition alliance is known in this part of the cow belt), Nitish had declared, “Mitti mein mil jayenge, lekin BJP se kabhi haath nahi milayenge” (I would rather be reduced to ashes than ever join hands with the BJP).</p>.<p><strong>Complex scenario</strong></p>.<p>It is the underlying ‘trust deficit’ that has made the Bihar poll matrix even more complex. Despite Nitish’s reaffirmation, the BJP does not fully trust him—and vice versa. This was evident during Amit Shah’s Bihar visit, where he refrained from declaring Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate for the 2025 Assembly polls.</p>.<p>“Amit Shahji praised both Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Modi for Bihar’s development. He also highlighted that Bihar’s annual plan outlay, which was a mere Rs 23,000 crore in 2004-2005, has now increased to Rs 3,23,000 crore for 2024-25. This speaks volumes about how the double-engine government of Modi-Nitish has put Bihar on the fast track of development,” said senior BJP leader and party spokesperson Prem Ranjan Patel.</p>.<p>However, the Rashtriya Janata Dal was quick to point out the fault lines in Shah’s assertions. “Shah praised Nitish profusely because the BJP needs votes in his name. Once the results are out, he will face the same fate as the two sitting chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra faced recently,” said the RJD spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari.</p>.<p>To support his claim, Tiwari cited how the BJP contested the Madhya Pradesh elections under Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s leadership (and his pet scheme, Ladli Yojna), only to remove him as CM post-victory. “Similarly, Maharashtra elections were fought in Eknath Shinde’s name. But post-poll, he was removed as the CM. You will witness a similar scenario in Bihar where the BJP will use Nitish’s face to garner votes. And post-poll, he will meet the same fate as Chouhan and Shinde,” he asserted.</p>.<p><strong>The flip side</strong></p>.<p>All is not well for the RJD-led alliance either. The RJD, which contested the 2020 Assembly polls under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav (as the RJD chief Lalu Prasad was in jail in Ranchi after his conviction in the fodder scam), emerged as the single largest party in a fiercely fought election. It won 75 seats, one more than the BJP’s 74, while Nitish was relegated to the third position, winning merely 43 seats in the 243-member House. The Congress, which contested 70 seats, won only 19, a poor score, compared to the Left (also part of the Mahagatbandhan), which won 16 seats.</p>.<p class="bodytext">It is this poor score of Congress which the RJD blames as the reason for Tejashwi narrowly missing the CM’s chair. “Had the Congress won 10 more seats, today Tejashwi would have been CM,” said the former MP and RJD vice-president Shivanand Tiwari, justifying why the party this time wants to curtail Congress’ seats during the seat-sharing.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Aware of the raw deal it may get at the hands of the RJD during the alliance talks, the Congress is using its best orator and young leader Kanhaiya Kumar, who is presently leading a yatra (march) in Bihar while raising the same issue which Tejashwi, of late, has been raking up: jobs and migration.</p>.<p class="bodytext">“Kanhaiya is a far more articulate orator, is well-read and is better qualified compared to Tejashwi. But, at the end of the day, he can’t get his party the votes which Tejashwi gets for the RJD-led <br />alliance. And in the battle of ballots, it is the votes that eventually decide who will rule the state,” averred political scientist Ajay Kumar.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Keeping this in mind, the Congress high command has informally conveyed its sentiments to the Bihar leaders that though Congress may appear to contest alone, at the end of the day, it will stitch <br />a formidable alliance with the RJD, as there is no way out other than riding piggyback on Lalu.</p>
<p>On March 30, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, with folded hands, bowed before Union Home Minister Amit Shah—a moment laden with contrast. The Janata Dal (United) strongman, now visibly weakened both physically and mentally, reiterated for the umpteenth time that he had “dumped the NDA twice and joined the Mahagatbandhan but won’t repeat such mistakes ever again”.</p>.<p>Nitish, until a decade ago, portrayed himself as a potential challenger to Narendra Modi, particularly after decisively defeating the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections. Yet on Sunday, he appeared meek and shaken, his confidence eroded.</p>.<p>This is precisely the position the Modi-Shah combine always sought—to render him mellowed down and helpless—though they would not state it openly.</p>.<p>Amit Shah, an astute politician, undoubtedly understood why Nitish was pledging loyalty to the BJP-led NDA. But he must also recall that in 2022, upon rejoining the Grand Alliance (or Mahagatbandhan, as the Opposition alliance is known in this part of the cow belt), Nitish had declared, “Mitti mein mil jayenge, lekin BJP se kabhi haath nahi milayenge” (I would rather be reduced to ashes than ever join hands with the BJP).</p>.<p><strong>Complex scenario</strong></p>.<p>It is the underlying ‘trust deficit’ that has made the Bihar poll matrix even more complex. Despite Nitish’s reaffirmation, the BJP does not fully trust him—and vice versa. This was evident during Amit Shah’s Bihar visit, where he refrained from declaring Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate for the 2025 Assembly polls.</p>.<p>“Amit Shahji praised both Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Modi for Bihar’s development. He also highlighted that Bihar’s annual plan outlay, which was a mere Rs 23,000 crore in 2004-2005, has now increased to Rs 3,23,000 crore for 2024-25. This speaks volumes about how the double-engine government of Modi-Nitish has put Bihar on the fast track of development,” said senior BJP leader and party spokesperson Prem Ranjan Patel.</p>.<p>However, the Rashtriya Janata Dal was quick to point out the fault lines in Shah’s assertions. “Shah praised Nitish profusely because the BJP needs votes in his name. Once the results are out, he will face the same fate as the two sitting chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra faced recently,” said the RJD spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari.</p>.<p>To support his claim, Tiwari cited how the BJP contested the Madhya Pradesh elections under Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s leadership (and his pet scheme, Ladli Yojna), only to remove him as CM post-victory. “Similarly, Maharashtra elections were fought in Eknath Shinde’s name. But post-poll, he was removed as the CM. You will witness a similar scenario in Bihar where the BJP will use Nitish’s face to garner votes. And post-poll, he will meet the same fate as Chouhan and Shinde,” he asserted.</p>.<p><strong>The flip side</strong></p>.<p>All is not well for the RJD-led alliance either. The RJD, which contested the 2020 Assembly polls under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav (as the RJD chief Lalu Prasad was in jail in Ranchi after his conviction in the fodder scam), emerged as the single largest party in a fiercely fought election. It won 75 seats, one more than the BJP’s 74, while Nitish was relegated to the third position, winning merely 43 seats in the 243-member House. The Congress, which contested 70 seats, won only 19, a poor score, compared to the Left (also part of the Mahagatbandhan), which won 16 seats.</p>.<p class="bodytext">It is this poor score of Congress which the RJD blames as the reason for Tejashwi narrowly missing the CM’s chair. “Had the Congress won 10 more seats, today Tejashwi would have been CM,” said the former MP and RJD vice-president Shivanand Tiwari, justifying why the party this time wants to curtail Congress’ seats during the seat-sharing.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Aware of the raw deal it may get at the hands of the RJD during the alliance talks, the Congress is using its best orator and young leader Kanhaiya Kumar, who is presently leading a yatra (march) in Bihar while raising the same issue which Tejashwi, of late, has been raking up: jobs and migration.</p>.<p class="bodytext">“Kanhaiya is a far more articulate orator, is well-read and is better qualified compared to Tejashwi. But, at the end of the day, he can’t get his party the votes which Tejashwi gets for the RJD-led <br />alliance. And in the battle of ballots, it is the votes that eventually decide who will rule the state,” averred political scientist Ajay Kumar.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Keeping this in mind, the Congress high command has informally conveyed its sentiments to the Bihar leaders that though Congress may appear to contest alone, at the end of the day, it will stitch <br />a formidable alliance with the RJD, as there is no way out other than riding piggyback on Lalu.</p>
