Two months back, when the campaign for the seven-phase Assembly election kicked off in Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) was riding high. Now when the election has reached its final phase, it is being debated whether the mighty BJP will retain power or a change of guard is inevitable in Lucknow.
Desperation is palpable in the top BJP leadership as their pointed attacks on Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav suggest. The SP chief has begun to be seen as the primary challenger.
While UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has gone about proclaiming how he has transformed the state and established some 'Ram Rajya', Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have tried to give the campaign a complete twist towards the final phases. They started hitting out at Akhilesh Yadav, who began to be described as the biggest villain. "If Akhilesh Yadav rides on to power, be prepared for the worst. "It would be back to 'parivarvaad', 'aatankvaad' and 'mafiavaad' (dynasty, terrorism and mafia)," was the prime minister's refrain.
Shah echoed Modi's tirade against Akhilesh Yadav and left everyone wondering why the BJP's top leadership had suddenly shifted its focus from their own achievements to a smear campaign against the SP in general and Akhilesh Yadav in particular.
The battle for Uttar Pradesh had turned bipolar was accepted by the ruling party for quite some time. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Congress had already been written off as serious players in the game. But repeated attempts at warning the electorate against "dangers" that lay ahead in an Akhilesh Yadav-led SP regime seemed to suggest that the BJP recognised the gauntlet that Akhilesh Yadav had thrown at them.
Three months back, such a scenario was unthinkable as the BJP's return to power was not only assertively voiced by the party's rank and file but looked a foregone conclusion by independent observers too. The BJP's unprecedented tally of 312 in the 403-member UP Assembly in 2017 seemed too far for the SP as it stood reduced to a paltry 47 in that election.
Even on the eve of the first phase polling in one corner of Western UP on February 7, it seemed incomprehensible for anyone in the BJP hierarchy to imagine a sharp drop in the ruling party's tally this time. After the first two phases of polling, in which the BJP's losses were quite apparent, an influential party insider was busy asserting, "We were on Mount Everest in 2017, so coming down is natural, but how much down can we go?" He remarked, "Even in a worst-case scenario, the BJP cannot go below 250."
While the crowds at Akhilesh Yadav's rallies swelled, enhancing his confidence level, the discourse of the BJP leaders turned murkier, which began to reflect desperation. Yet, the Sangh Parivar built a perception that the third, fourth and fifth phases of polling had enabled the party to offset its earlier losses.
"We will get a comfortable majority with at least 225 seats, so there is no question of the party not staging a comeback that will break the historical jinx that no political party could return to power in the state after completing a full-term in many decades," said a senior Sangh Parivar insider towards the end of February when five phases were over.
What seemed to bring down the expectation of those very insiders was the sixth phase. "This has been a bad phase for our party, somewhat as bad as the second phase," admitted a prominent leader of the BJP's think-tank. But he still believed, "We will form the government, and Yogi (Adityanath) ji will create history by becoming the first chief minister to repeat a term." On being asked to elaborate, he said that the BJP and its allies would still get enough numbers to cross the magic figure of 202.
To achieve the new goal, Prime Minister Modi, who had personally taken over command of the campaign well before the sixth phase, decided to camp in Varanasi, which is considered the political hub of the last phase. Modi is an MP from Varanasi and confident of turning the tide from here. He takes the credit for building the impressive Rs 350 crore Kashi Vishwanath Temple corridor carrying out other infrastructural transformations of his constituency.
The 2017 result shows that the BJP's performance in this phase was most dismal. The party could score 29 out of the 54 seats in this phase at the peak of the Modi wave. Even with seven seats of its allies, the party could not get more than 36 seats here. How he hopes to turn the tide this time remains a big question. Does Modi believe that the current bitter tirade against Akhilesh Yadav can now be a game-changer for the BJP?
(Sharat Pradhan is a journalist and an author based in Lucknow.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.