BJP’s overdependence on Narendra Modi

There is an inherent structural problem in any design that places all the weight on a central column

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), founded in 1980, in its early years and during its first term in power at the Centre between 1998 to 2004, was distinct from other Indian political parties because it did not have a high command culture. There was no dynasty that inherited and ran the party, and even the influence of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) was negotiated at every stage. The pre-Narendra Modi BJP had multiple power centres that expressed themselves in the public domain.

Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee ran the first coalition government at the Centre that would complete a term. But running the BJP of those days also required skills of coalition management, while negotiating with other power centres in Delhi, besides strong chief ministers (including Modi) in several states.

Today’s BJP is built around one individual, Prime Minister Narendra Modi — who led the party to impressive wins in the 2014 and the 2019 general elections, and will be leading it in the 2024 contest — and is run by a high command that is never critiqued. It’s now the chicken or the egg question to ask who benefitted more, the BJP or Modi.

As Modi is now under attack from the Opposition after the Hindenburg Research report came out raising questions about the Adani Group’s business practices, it’s relevant to ask: Is there a BJP beyond Modi, or does the party’s fortunes hinge on the Prime Minister?

The most autonomous BJP Chief Minister is undoubtedly Uttar Pradesh’s Yogi Adityanath. He has an excellent co-ordination with the RSS, but allegedly does not always obey New Delhi’s instructions. As he oversees the state that forms the backbone of the BJP’s numbers in Parliament, and successfully won a second term in the 2022 Assembly polls, he is no pushover. Like Modi, he balances Hindutva posturing with social welfare schemes. Adityanath is 50 years old, while Modi is 72, and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who is seen by many as second to Modi, is 58 years old.

Another factor that might favour Adityanath is that the freeze on delimitation of new Lok Sabha constituencies ends in 2026. If population is subsequently used as the principle to create more Lok Sabha seats, Uttar Pradesh’s importance will further increase, as UP’s fertility rate is higher than the national average, especially more than the southern states.

Besides Uttar Pradesh, there is increased central writ on other states where the BJP is in power, or in the reckoning. The rise of Modi within the BJP and his arrival at the national stage has seen the dilution of regional autonomy within the party, and the cutting down to size of other power centres. For instance, in Himachal Pradesh, where the party narrowly lost the state elections to the Congress in 2022, many loyalists of former Chief Minister P K Dhumal were denied tickets to contest as a BJP candidate leading some to contest as independents.

By end of this year, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan will go to the polls. Chhattisgarh is considered relatively safe for the Congress, but the grand old party could be in trouble in Rajasthan. For the BJP in Rajasthan, former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is believed to have the biggest mass following among contenders, but it is believed that she is not favoured by the party high command. There are multiple factions within the BJP in Rajasthan, and it will be New Delhi’s decision to either promote a new generation of leaders and pivot the campaign on Modi, or campaign by projecting a state leader.

In Madhya Pradesh there is speculation that Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who is in his fourth term in the office, could make way for another leader to become Chief Minister before the polls are announced. This model where the sitting Chief Minister is changed before the polls, perhaps to deflect anti-incumbency, has been adopted by the BJP in Gujarat, and also before the recently held polls in Tripura.

Rotating chief ministers has also been a tactic used in Karnataka where B S Yediyurappa quit in mid-2021 — his fourth incomplete term as Chief Minister. Since then, Basavaraj Bommai is Chief Minister. As Karnataka is expected to go to the polls in a few months’ time, a balance is being struck between the caste influence of old timers such as Yediyurappa, the igniting of Hindutva flashpoints in certain zones, and beating all the other parties at booth management.

Yet, a Modi campaign is central to the plans to beat local anti-incumbency. No government has been re-elected in Karnataka since 1985, and yet the BJP under Modi is trying to cross new thresholds even as it diminishes all other figures. As long as Modi keeps delivering, the absolute leader narrative will continue. There is, however, an inherent structural problem in any design that places all the weight on a central column.

(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author.)

The views expressed are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.