Bypoll victory reinforces Yogi Adityanath’s dominance in UP

The by-election results serve as an early indicator for the 2027 Assembly elections. Yogi Adityanath’s continued dominance suggests that the BJP remains the frontrunner in the state.

The results to the by-elections in Uttar Pradesh have reaffirmed Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s political dominance in the state and reinforced his image as an undisputed saffron poster boy.

The most striking aspect of this electoral outcome has been the shifting political loyalties of the backward classes and the Dalits, which played a crucial role in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s victory in Milkipur (Faizabad) — a seat it lost in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Adityanath’s campaigning, emphasis on governance, law and order, and social engineering through caste mobilisation have delivered results. While the Opposition, particularly the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress, attempted to consolidate anti-BJP votes, the saffron party’s deep penetration into the backward classes and the Dalit communities through Hindutva with the ‘Batenge to Katenge’ slogan, welfarism, and micro-management of castes proved decisive in winning back the numerically strong social communities in key contests.

The Milkipur verdict shows the BJP’s defeat in the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency was a rare setback in an otherwise dominant election cycle for the saffron outfit. The loss was attributed to the discontent among the backward castes and the Dalits, who were seen drifting towards the I.N.D.I.A., which focused on the caste census and ‘Samvidhan Badal Denge’ narrative. However, the Milkipur by-election result suggests a significant reversal of that trend.

Milkipur, a reserved Assembly seat within Faizabad, had witnessed a consolidation of non-Yadav OBCs and the Dalits behind the Opposition in 2024. Now, the BJP has successfully wooed these groups back into its fold. This shift underscores a key trend: the BJP’s strategy of incorporating non-dominant OBCs (like Kurmis, Rajbhars, and Lodhs) and non-Jatav Dalits (like Pasis and Valmikis) into its Hindutva-driven social coalition is yielding dividends.

Since becoming chief minister in 2017, Adityanath has transformed the BJP’s electoral strategy in Uttar Pradesh by combining governance-centric politics with Hindutva and caste calculus. His government’s policies, especially those related to law and order, infrastructure development, and welfare schemes, have bolstered the BJP’s appeal in UP’s caste-ridden terrain. His strongman image has reinforced the BJP’s positioning as a protector of law and order, a major issue in rural and semi-urban areas.

The BJP government’s extensive free ration scheme, along with housing and electricity benefits under the PM Awas Yojana and Saubhagya Yojana, have ensured continued loyalty among the lower economic strata. Many beneficiaries belong to the OBC and the Dalit communities.

The inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya has infused fresh momentum into the BJP’s Hindutva politics. The temple has not only mobilised traditional Hindu voters but has also attracted subaltern Hindutva voters. The Milkipur victory is an indicator of this trend.

After an impressive performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the SP and Congress attempted to consolidate the Muslim and the Yadav votes while expanding their support base among the non-Yadav OBCs and the Dalits through the PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) formula, along with efforts to attract upper castes, particularly the Brahmins. However, their inability to retain a broader winning social coalition of the OBCs and the Dalits remains their biggest weakness.

Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA formula now appears insufficient in the face of the BJP’s immediate course correction. The Congress failed to make a mark in these by-elections. The party’s inability to translate its Lok Sabha gains into a strong electoral machine at the Assembly level highlights structural weaknesses within its state unit.

The by-election results serve as an early indicator for the 2027 Assembly elections. Adityanath’s continued dominance suggests that the BJP remains the frontrunner in the state. However, the party cannot afford complacency. The Opposition, despite its setbacks, will regroup and attempt to challenge the BJP’s dominance through fresh alliances and renewed caste mobilisation.

For now, Adityanath’s brand of politics — combining Hindutva, governance, and social engineering — remains a potent force in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP has also managed to tighten its grip over the Hindi heartland.

As Uttar Pradesh continues to be the epicentre of national politics, Adityanath has once again proven why he remains the BJP’s most formidable leader after Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

(Mahendra Kumar Singh is a political commentator and teaches Political Science at DDU Gorakhpur University, Uttar Pradesh. X: @MKSinghGkp.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.