Can Nitish Kumar unite the Opposition? Yes, but not so easily

Among Opposition ranks, it is known that the office of the PM is up for grabs for any regional leader who can win 30-plus LS seats and find acceptability

Among the Opposition ranks it is known that the office of the Prime Minister is up for grabs for any regional leader who can win 30-plus Lok Sabha seats and find acceptability among the non-Congress groupings.

Would Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar play an anchor’s role in forging Opposition unity? The issue, having gained momentum after Kumar’s meetings with the Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal in New Delhi on April 12, has an element of suspense for a variety of reasons.

First, would the Congress trust a leader belonging to the Janata Dal(U) as an architect in chief? Second, would Kumar get a formal and coveted post as United Progressive Alliance (UPA) convenor? Third, would such a designation rule Kumar out as a prime ministerial candidate for 2024?

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It is an open secret that Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have, throughout 2014-2022 remained cold and indifferent towards asking either the Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee or Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar to be the UPA convenor. During this period, both Banerjee and Pawar showed keen interest in taking up the job to unite the non-NDA Opposition.

The UPA has been dormant since 2014. The enormity of defeat in 2014 was such that the UPA, as it had existed during 2004-2014, scattered the coalition. The non-NDA parties, however, did come together before the assembly polls of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Bengal, etc.

The mirage

Opposition unity is still a mirage. In the past, there have been many instances of the Opposition cutting across party lines and ideological barriers, coming together — in 1977, 1989, 1996, and 2004. But in each of these epoch-making periods, the unity was worked out barely a few months before the polls. Now that a countdown of sorts for the 2024 Lok sabha polls has begun, the Opposition is closing ranks.

Many regional leaders from Kumar, Kejriwal, Banerjee to Pawar and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leader and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin are fancying the Opposition’s prospects for 2024. In their collective assessment, due to political reasons, and anti-incumbency, Modi will not be able to repeat his 2014 or 2019 parliamentary performance in 2024. There has been a pattern of sorts. Each time a towering, charismatic personality faces downfall, regional players and coalition politics has come to the fore. It happened in 1977, 1989, 1996, and 2004 against the established and tall leadership of Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, PV Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee respectively.

Disqualification benefit

There is another significant feature that is binding the Opposition ranks. Post-disqualification from Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, for the combined Opposition has become a ‘cause’ more than the leader. Most Opposition leaders are also aware that Rahul Gandhi is not hankering for the office of the Prime Minister. He is not a contender unless the Congress does unexpectedly well in 2024.

In Rahul Gandhi’s scheme of things, unless the Congress crosses ‘half of half’ figure in Lok Sabha, i.e. half of the 272 mark, the grand old party would not be staking a claim for the coveted post. As things stand, the Congress would consider itself lucky to win 100 seats in the Lok Sabha. Thus, at an informal level, the word is out among the Opposition ranks that the office of the Prime Minister is up for grabs for any regional leader having the ability to net 30-plus parliamentary seats and find acceptability among the non-Congress groupings.

Past precedence

Past precedence tells a fascinating story how non-contenders invariably made the cut in 1977, 1989, 1996, and 2004. While Jai Prakash Narayan was not inclined to take the high office, both Jagjivan Ram and Charan Singh were aspirants when the mantle fell on 77-year-old Morarji Desai. In 1989, VP Singh had positioned himself for the top job but in the National Front, the choice had fallen on Choudhury Devi Lal. It was Lal’s grace and an act of benevolence that saw the former Raja of Manda realising his dream. In 1996, the United Front experiment had a problem of plenty — from Lalu Prasad to Mulayam Singh Yadav, they eliminated each other’s prospects till HD Deve Gowda emerged as a compromise and acceptable nominee. In 2004, when Sonia Gandhi declined to become Prime Minister, at least two senior Congress leaders — Arjun Singh and Pranab Mukherjee — had considered themselves more deserving and worthy than Manmohan Singh.

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In 1977, when a mighty Indira Gandhi was humbled, there was an anchor to steady the Opposition ship. Indira Gandhi had announced Lok Sabha polls after lifting Emergency on January 18, 1977. She had addressed the nation on All India Radio, calling for elections in March 1977 giving the Opposition leaders, mostly in jail, barely two months. The Opposition was in chaos due to lack of party funds, resources, etc. but Narayan helped them come together. The veteran freedom fighter made it clear that he would campaign for the opposition parties if they merge into a single unit. Subsequently, four major opposition parties: the Congress (O), the Jan Sangh, the Sanyukta Socialist Party, and the Bharatiya Lok Dal came together on January 23, 1977 to form the Janata Party.

Similarly, in 1989, the Left and the Right teamed up with VP Singh to deny Rajiv Gandhi a chance to form the government although the Congress was the single-largest party. In 2004 too when the Vajpayee-led BJP received lesser number of seats than the Congress, former Prime Minister VP Singh and CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet acted swiftly behind the scenes to bring egoist, temperamental regional satraps together and closer to the Congress. The UPA was formed, and it was in power for 10 long years.

An envious task

However, it is advantageous to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The task of keeping mercurial leaders ranging from Kumar, Banerjee to Pawar, Shiv Sena leader Udhav Thackeray, Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader and Chief Deputy Chief Minister Tejaswi Yadav, Stalin, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader and Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren, etc. together is an envious task.

Coalition politics is layered, having wheels within wheels. Some regional players may not be ready to show their hand and could even work to scuttle the prospects of one another. Kumar, having seen these machinations of 1977, 1989, 1996, till date, is perhaps slightly better equipped to deal with these intricacies.

(Rasheed Kidwai is a political commentator, author, and visiting Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. Twitter: @rasheedkidwai)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.