<p>The upcoming Assembly elections in West Bengal, to be held in two phases in April, will be the best test case of whether a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls can, by itself, decide the electoral outcome.</p><p>The reason: Nowhere has the SIR, an exercise not limited to West Bengal but also undertaken in all the states where similar elections are to be held in April, created as much controversy as it has in the eastern state.</p><p>Both the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) government, chasing a fourth straight term, and the principal political challenger, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have been trying to leverage the SIR to the hilt to strengthen their case with the electorate ahead of the Assembly polls.</p><p>Both parties insist their positions stem from a desire to protect voters and safeguard democracy. The TMC narrative has been that the SIR process, as undertaken, could disenfranchise many legitimate voters. The BJP's stance has been that the SIR would weed out illegal voters and ensure fair polls.</p>.West Bengal SIR | Algorithmic errors, political motives.<p>However, in a state where the difference in seats won between the two top political parties in the fray was huge in the last Assembly elections held in 2021, and even factoring in anti-incumbency and a revitalised Opposition, the SIR issue can prove to be the clincher for the winning party only if 2026 sees an especially tight contest between the TMC and the BJP.</p><p>In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC won 213 seats, compared with 77 for the BJP.</p><p>Although the SIR process has already resulted in a significant trimming of the voter list in West Bengal, and the possibility being there of the list shrinking further, the fact that a lot of the slashing has happened in many seats where the TMC has historically won handsomely in the past will come into play only if it becomes a close fight in these constituencies in 2026. </p><p>The fact that the 2026 elections are being held in two phases, unlike eight as in 2021, may also suit the TMC more than the BJP. Having been in power for so long, the TMC has better organisational machinery at the booth level. Moreover, being a local party, arranging the logistics for its ‘star campaigners’ will be relatively easier for the TMC. However, the BJP, given its national status and the huge resources at its disposal, can always counter the logistical challenges posed by its own national and West Bengal-based ‘star campaigners’.</p><p>Much as it would hate to lose many seats, or see winning margins drop in constituencies it had traditionally considered its bastions, due to the SIR, the TMC will have a lot less to lose if it can secure another term in power with a comfortable majority. It is the BJP that will not stand to gain much if the SIR, on which it has already expended so much political capital, does not translate into the kind of electoral gains it expects.</p><p>The intense focus on the SIR has already shifted attention away from many core issues. Chief among these is the state's inability to create an adequate number of new, higher-quality jobs for its young population, many of whom are forced to migrate for employment. Not being able to make a mark in new-age sectors is another issue the TMC may have had to answer some serious questions about if the SIR issue had not become as big as it is now in the state.</p><p>Predictably, the TMC government has announced a slew of welfare schemes lately to win favour with voters. It has traditionally garnered significant support from women voters, due to the many state government schemes aimed at them, and the fact that West Bengal has a woman chief minister.</p><p>While the BJP has raised the issue of development and how it coming to power could hasten prosperity and growth, the emphasis in recent times has always been on the SIR issue. The ‘double engine’ (having the same government at the state and Centre) narrative that the BJP usually deploys in state elections has been on display in West Bengal, but the loudest decibels have been reserved for the special intensive revision, suggesting that the party views a supposedly clean electoral roll as its most viable path to forming a government in the state.</p><p>Ultimately, winning is the only thing that matters, and having devoted so much of their energy to the SIR issue, both the TMC and the BJP would hope that their strategies in this regard pay off.</p><p>May 4, when the election results for West Bengal will be known, will tell us whether a revision of the election rolls can determine which party emerges victorious.</p><p><em>(Sumali Moitra is a current affairs commentator. Views expressed are personal. X: @sumalimoitra)</em></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
<p>The upcoming Assembly elections in West Bengal, to be held in two phases in April, will be the best test case of whether a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls can, by itself, decide the electoral outcome.</p><p>The reason: Nowhere has the SIR, an exercise not limited to West Bengal but also undertaken in all the states where similar elections are to be held in April, created as much controversy as it has in the eastern state.</p><p>Both the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC) government, chasing a fourth straight term, and the principal political challenger, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have been trying to leverage the SIR to the hilt to strengthen their case with the electorate ahead of the Assembly polls.</p><p>Both parties insist their positions stem from a desire to protect voters and safeguard democracy. The TMC narrative has been that the SIR process, as undertaken, could disenfranchise many legitimate voters. The BJP's stance has been that the SIR would weed out illegal voters and ensure fair polls.</p>.West Bengal SIR | Algorithmic errors, political motives.<p>However, in a state where the difference in seats won between the two top political parties in the fray was huge in the last Assembly elections held in 2021, and even factoring in anti-incumbency and a revitalised Opposition, the SIR issue can prove to be the clincher for the winning party only if 2026 sees an especially tight contest between the TMC and the BJP.</p><p>In the 2021 Assembly elections, the TMC won 213 seats, compared with 77 for the BJP.</p><p>Although the SIR process has already resulted in a significant trimming of the voter list in West Bengal, and the possibility being there of the list shrinking further, the fact that a lot of the slashing has happened in many seats where the TMC has historically won handsomely in the past will come into play only if it becomes a close fight in these constituencies in 2026. </p><p>The fact that the 2026 elections are being held in two phases, unlike eight as in 2021, may also suit the TMC more than the BJP. Having been in power for so long, the TMC has better organisational machinery at the booth level. Moreover, being a local party, arranging the logistics for its ‘star campaigners’ will be relatively easier for the TMC. However, the BJP, given its national status and the huge resources at its disposal, can always counter the logistical challenges posed by its own national and West Bengal-based ‘star campaigners’.</p><p>Much as it would hate to lose many seats, or see winning margins drop in constituencies it had traditionally considered its bastions, due to the SIR, the TMC will have a lot less to lose if it can secure another term in power with a comfortable majority. It is the BJP that will not stand to gain much if the SIR, on which it has already expended so much political capital, does not translate into the kind of electoral gains it expects.</p><p>The intense focus on the SIR has already shifted attention away from many core issues. Chief among these is the state's inability to create an adequate number of new, higher-quality jobs for its young population, many of whom are forced to migrate for employment. Not being able to make a mark in new-age sectors is another issue the TMC may have had to answer some serious questions about if the SIR issue had not become as big as it is now in the state.</p><p>Predictably, the TMC government has announced a slew of welfare schemes lately to win favour with voters. It has traditionally garnered significant support from women voters, due to the many state government schemes aimed at them, and the fact that West Bengal has a woman chief minister.</p><p>While the BJP has raised the issue of development and how it coming to power could hasten prosperity and growth, the emphasis in recent times has always been on the SIR issue. The ‘double engine’ (having the same government at the state and Centre) narrative that the BJP usually deploys in state elections has been on display in West Bengal, but the loudest decibels have been reserved for the special intensive revision, suggesting that the party views a supposedly clean electoral roll as its most viable path to forming a government in the state.</p><p>Ultimately, winning is the only thing that matters, and having devoted so much of their energy to the SIR issue, both the TMC and the BJP would hope that their strategies in this regard pay off.</p><p>May 4, when the election results for West Bengal will be known, will tell us whether a revision of the election rolls can determine which party emerges victorious.</p><p><em>(Sumali Moitra is a current affairs commentator. Views expressed are personal. X: @sumalimoitra)</em></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
