Can the CPI(M) turn its electoral rout into an opportunity?

Defeat in elections is nothing new for the CPI(M) in Kerala. The state has a long history of the CPI(M)- and Congress-led fronts alternating in power. But this defeat is a cause for concern for the CPI(M) for several reasons.

In its worst-ever electoral defeat in Kerala, the party even lost communist citadels such as Thaliparambu and Payyannur in Kannur. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s victory margin in Dharmadam fell sharply from 50,123 to 19,247, along with nearly a 10% drop in vote share.

Another major concern is the Bharatiya Janata Party reopening its account in the Kerala Assembly with a bang, winning three seats after losing its lone seat in the previous elections. All three BJP victories came from sitting Left Front constituencies—Nemon and Kazhakoottam in Thiruvananthapuram from the CPI(M) and Chathannoor in Kollam from the CPI.

The BJP has already begun projecting the result as the beginning of a West Bengal- and Tripura-style shift—the states where the CPI(M) lost decades of dominance and the BJP emerged as a major force.

Even CPI(M) veterans are unwilling to dismiss such a possibility. “I can neither rule out nor admit that the Kerala CPI(M) would face the fate of the CPI(M) in West Bengal,” veteran CPI(M) leader T K Hamza said.

Pinarayi Vijayan’s image was widely credited for the Left Democratic Front (LDF)’s consecutive victory in the 2021 Assembly election, when the LDF improved its tally from 91 to 99 in the 140-member Assembly. It marked a deviation from Kerala’s usual pattern of alternating governments.

However, in the 2026 election, the Pinarayi factor seems to have worked against the CPI(M), which suffered a rout.

The party not only projected the octogenarian as its undisputed leader but also sidelined possible contenders such as former health minister K K Shailaja. Denied renomination from her sitting seat in Mattanur, Kannur, she was fielded against Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president Sunny Joseph at the Congress stronghold Peravoor in Kannur. As anticipated, Shailaja, who won with the highest margin of 60,963 in 2021, lost by around 15,000 votes.

The past five years also saw Vijayan enjoying hero worship, with pro-CPI(M) outfits staging dance performances and songs praising him. It was not just a sharp deviation from the CPI(M) ideologies but also exposed Vijayan’s double standards, given his earlier criticism of personality cults around former Chief Minister V S Achuthanadan and senior leader P Jayarajan.

The CPI(M) also appeared weaker in resisting attempts by vested interests to communalise Kerala society, which has traditionally upheld strong secular credentials. Vijayan’s controversial remarks on the higher crime rates in Muslim-dominated Malappuram and his silence on communal remarks by SNDP Yogam general secretary Vellappally Natesan were widely seen as departures from the party’s core ideology.

Allegations surrounding Vijayan’s daughter’s financial dealings with a controversial mining firm and Congress charges that central agencies were going soft on him because of an alleged nexus with the BJP and criticism of his authoritarian style and harsh remarks against opponents also contributed to his declining popularity.

The CPI(M) strongholds in Kannur and Ambalappuzha witnessed a massive erosion in the party’s vote base, seemingly reflecting the impact of nepotism and corruption allegations raised by prominent party leaders such as T K Govindan, V Kunhikrishnan and G Sudhakaran. All three even won as rebel candidates, which gives a strong message that party cadres are no more blind believers of the leadership.

The anti-Pinarayi sentiments were evident as hoardings against him appeared in Kannur soon after the electoral rout.

Kerala is now keenly watching whether Vijayan himself will continue to lead the LDF in the Assembly in the coming years.

Though the BJP has only three MLAs against the LDF’s 35 on the opposition benches, the party’s winners include state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar and senior leader and former minister of state for external affairs V Muraleedharan. 

The BJP has already declared its ambition to emerge as the ruling party in Kerala, citing West Bengal, where it grew from three seats in 2016 to become the principal challenger and winning within a decade.

Calls for leadership change have already emerged from CPI(M) supporters and, reportedly, from within the party. Many see the electoral defeat as a victory for the party. 

“It is a real opportunity for the party to reinvent and re-emerge, as it still has a strong base,” said former CPI(M)-backed independent MLA Sebastian Paul.

According to him, the mandate was against Pinarayi Vijayan rather than the CPI(M). A leadership change, therefore, could lead to a revival of the party. Since Vijayan has dominated the CPI(M) for nearly three decades, a sudden exit appears unlikely. One of the party’s biggest crises now is the lack of a strong second line of leadership.

Paul also said Kerala is unlikely to witness a West Bengal-style BJP surge and CPI(M) wipeout. “The situations in West Bengal and Kerala are different. The CPI(M) still has a strong base in Kerala. We have also seen the BJP losing the lone assembly seat that they won in 2016,” he said.

From the CPI(M)’s initial response to the electoral rout, it seems the party realises where it went wrong. It has now decided, at least, to give a patient hearing to voices from grassroots workers and supporters as part of a correction exercise.