China using Brahmaputra dam project as strategic weapon

While the border dispute between India and China remains unresolved, and political differences between the two countries widen on bilateral as well as regional issues, water has emerged as yet another subject where differences are widening with the potential of conflict in the future.

India is worried about China’s dam projects on the Brahmaputra river and both countries are asserting to defend their national interests and claims in controlling the water as it flows from the Tibetan plateau to the riparian states downstream in India and Bangladesh before flowing down to join the Bay of Bengal.

No sooner than China successfully blocked India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and equating India with Pakistan’s claim for the same, India announced plans to assert its rights within the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan. China retaliated within days of India’s announcement saying that it was building a dam on a tributary of the Brahmaputra (known as Yarlung Zangbo in Tibet). It soon transpired that this will be its “most expensive hydel project”. As a lower riparian state, India will be directly affected.

India sees red in China’s dam building overdrive. New Delhi is concerned because there are no bilateral or multilateral treaties on the water. Since Brahmaputra flows though the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, building a dam on the river could help China assert its claim over the state.

For quite some time, China had been claiming Tawang in the state of Arunachal Pradesh as its own and then started claiming the whole of Arunachal Pradesh as its territory. India fears that if China builds dam projects in the Tibetan plateau, it would threaten to reduce flow of river water into India.

Water is a critical resource for any nation that fetch rich economic dividend. Therefore, a country can use water by constructing dams, canals and irrigation systems as political weapon, which can be used both in war and also during peace time. In Brahmaputra’s case, China’s act signal annoyance with the riparian states. Also, denial of hydrological data becomes critical when the flow in the river is very high. 

India is also concerned that China is contemplating northward re-routing of the Brahmaputra, though this is an idea that China does not discuss in public. If China diverts the river, it could have devastating consequences for India’s northeastern plains and also for Bangladesh, either with floods or reduced water flow.  
 
In 2010, China built the first dam on the main upper reaches of the Brahmaputra at Zangmu. In February 2013, India complained to China about its hydro projects on the Brahmaputra in Tibet in addition to the one being built. This caused considerable disquiet in India as it was not informed of it before.

A document listing projects to be completed in China’s 12th five-year-plan, a blueprint for the energy sector, approved by the Chinese Cabinet, made passing reference to the three hydropower bases on the Yar-lung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) river at Dagu, Jiacha and Jiexu (small scale projects) on Brahmaputra without giving any details.

India and China signed two pacts in 2008 and 2010 which facilitated India with data on water levels and rainfall twice a day from June 1 to Oct 15 at three hydrological stations in Tibet. In 2001, an artificial dam in Tibet collapsed and killed 26 people besides damaging property worth Rs 140 crore along the river Siang in Arunachal Pradesh.

China claimed that the project had gone through scientific planning and study with consideration of the interests of lower and upper stream countries. Such defence, however, did not assuage the concerns of the lower riparian countries.

China has another project, the Lalho project, on the 195-km long Xiabuqu river in Xigaze, also known as Shigatse (close to Sikkim) with an investment of $740 million. In 2015, China inaugurated the Zam hydropower station, the largest in Tibet, the highest dam built on Brahmaputra.  From 2011 onwards, the situation has drastically changed.

Long-term goal
Not only now China continues to build dams on the river with impunity, and has already planned to implement its long-term goal to divert waters of the Brahmaputra to its parched northeast, it refuses to accede to any international rule of law. There is no bilateral water treaty between India and China. China is not ready to even discuss the issue with India.

As a lower riparian state with considerable established user rights to the waters or the river, India has conveyed its views and concerns to the Chinese authorities and urged China to ensure that the interests of downstream states are not harmed by any activities in upstream areas. 

An NGO in Assam, Jana Jagriti, alleges that China is building 26 hydropower dams, not just three, on the upper reaches of the river in Tibet.

The NGO made public photograph in support of its claims that the projects are to divert the waters, which it calls “South to North Water Diversion Projects”. The NGO claims that once the Chinese complete the projects, Assam will receive 64% less water during the monsoon and in the non-monsoon season, 85% less water will come from China to India. Brahmaputra is the lifeline of Assam as well as the state’s cultural heritage, besides being connected with the state’s religious sentiments.

The truism, however, is that apart from the economic benefits that China is going to derive from the projects, it would have strengthened its strategic reach. That would be more worrying for India. New Delhi needs to take a tough stance to protect and if need be defend its interests.  

(The writer is ICCR India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan)