<p>China has decided to fast-track a “flagship” dam project in Pakistan in what is seen as open support to its close ally, weeks after India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22. Some Chinese media described the development as a “critical” construction milestone and said it marks a new phase of fast-paced progress on the project. The move is more than mere concrete and steel – it’s an important statement in a region teetering on the edge of conflict.</p>.<p>The speeding up of the Mohmand Hydropower Project is China’s calculated show of solidarity with Pakistan, a direct response to the suspension of the IWT. The project isn’t just about building a dam or generating power. It’s China telling India and everyone else, “We’re standing with Pakistan.” With water rights emerging as a contentious issue, it’s a move aligned with a much bigger game – to maintain the balance of power in South Asia.</p>.<p>India’s argument is straightforward: Pakistan’s support to cross-border terrorism, exemplified by the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 people, voids the treaty’s terms. By pulling out, India is signalling it’s done playing nice over the Indus River system which sustains 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and a third of its hydropower. China, sensing an opportunity, is stepping in to bolster Pakistan’s water security, escalating a regional tug-of-war that could reshape the future of South Asia. This is less about dams and more about power – geopolitical, economic, and hydraulic.</p>.<p>The Indus River isn’t just water; it’s the lifeblood of Pakistan, irrigating fields that feed millions of people and powering industries struggling to keep the lights on. India’s suspension of the IWT, brokered by the World Bank to prevent exactly this kind of chaos, threatens to choke that lifeline. Meanwhile, China’s involvement isn’t just neighbourly goodwill – it’s a flex of influence in a region where it’s already a heavyweight through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). For the average person in Pakistan, this is about survival: the crisis involves crops, electricity, and drinking water. For India, it’s about leverage against a rival. And for China, it’s a chance to deepen its footprint in South Asia, potentially at India’s expense. Everyone is watching because water wars could spark real ones.</p>.<p>The Mohmand Dam, under construction since 2019 by the state-owned China Energy Engineering Corporation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is not a small project. It’s designed to generate 800 megawatts of electricity, supply 300 million gallons of drinking water daily to Peshawar, and control floods while irrigating vast swathes of farmland. Chinese state media recently announced that concrete filling has begun, signalling an accelerated timeline, possibly pushing the completion ahead of the original 2026 target.</p>.<p><strong>Water, weaponised</strong></p>.<p>There are geopolitical themes in play. More than finishing the project ahead of schedule, this could mean China effectively taking on India’s threat to cut off the water supply. India’s current infrastructure, mostly run-of-the-river hydropower plants such as Kishanganga and Baglihar, can’t fully block the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers allocated to Pakistan under the IWT. But India’s working on it, with plans to expand reservoir capacity and build new dams – moves that could eventually squeeze Pakistan’s water share. Pakistan, already water-stressed and projected to be water-scarce by 2025, can’t afford to wait.</p>.<p>China’s not just building a dam; it’s building leverage. The Mohmand project, part of the CPEC, complements other ventures such as the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. These projects scream strategic partnership, especially as India flexes its upstream advantage. But here’s the catch: China, upstream of India on the Brahmaputra River, might take a page from India’s playbook and block water flows, which supply 30% of India’s freshwater. This tit-for-tat could spiral, with each country weaponising rivers to choke the other’s economy. Add in the risk of Pakistan viewing water cut-offs as an “act of war,” and you’ve got a recipe for instability in a nuclear-armed neighbourhood.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Imagine a chessboard where rivers are pawns, and dams are knights. China’s move to speed up the Mohmand Dam is a check, not checkmate, in a game where no one can afford to lose. It’s a reminder that in South Asia, water isn’t just a resource – it’s power, survival, and a spark that could ignite a firestorm. As India, Pakistan, and China manoeuvre, the hope is for cooler heads to prevail before the rivers run dry.</p>.<p class="bodytext"><span class="italic"><em>(The writer is an author and businessman based in Nepal)</em></span></p>
<p>China has decided to fast-track a “flagship” dam project in Pakistan in what is seen as open support to its close ally, weeks after India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) following the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22. Some Chinese media described the development as a “critical” construction milestone and said it marks a new phase of fast-paced progress on the project. The move is more than mere concrete and steel – it’s an important statement in a region teetering on the edge of conflict.</p>.<p>The speeding up of the Mohmand Hydropower Project is China’s calculated show of solidarity with Pakistan, a direct response to the suspension of the IWT. The project isn’t just about building a dam or generating power. It’s China telling India and everyone else, “We’re standing with Pakistan.” With water rights emerging as a contentious issue, it’s a move aligned with a much bigger game – to maintain the balance of power in South Asia.</p>.<p>India’s argument is straightforward: Pakistan’s support to cross-border terrorism, exemplified by the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 people, voids the treaty’s terms. By pulling out, India is signalling it’s done playing nice over the Indus River system which sustains 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and a third of its hydropower. China, sensing an opportunity, is stepping in to bolster Pakistan’s water security, escalating a regional tug-of-war that could reshape the future of South Asia. This is less about dams and more about power – geopolitical, economic, and hydraulic.</p>.<p>The Indus River isn’t just water; it’s the lifeblood of Pakistan, irrigating fields that feed millions of people and powering industries struggling to keep the lights on. India’s suspension of the IWT, brokered by the World Bank to prevent exactly this kind of chaos, threatens to choke that lifeline. Meanwhile, China’s involvement isn’t just neighbourly goodwill – it’s a flex of influence in a region where it’s already a heavyweight through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). For the average person in Pakistan, this is about survival: the crisis involves crops, electricity, and drinking water. For India, it’s about leverage against a rival. And for China, it’s a chance to deepen its footprint in South Asia, potentially at India’s expense. Everyone is watching because water wars could spark real ones.</p>.<p>The Mohmand Dam, under construction since 2019 by the state-owned China Energy Engineering Corporation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is not a small project. It’s designed to generate 800 megawatts of electricity, supply 300 million gallons of drinking water daily to Peshawar, and control floods while irrigating vast swathes of farmland. Chinese state media recently announced that concrete filling has begun, signalling an accelerated timeline, possibly pushing the completion ahead of the original 2026 target.</p>.<p><strong>Water, weaponised</strong></p>.<p>There are geopolitical themes in play. More than finishing the project ahead of schedule, this could mean China effectively taking on India’s threat to cut off the water supply. India’s current infrastructure, mostly run-of-the-river hydropower plants such as Kishanganga and Baglihar, can’t fully block the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers allocated to Pakistan under the IWT. But India’s working on it, with plans to expand reservoir capacity and build new dams – moves that could eventually squeeze Pakistan’s water share. Pakistan, already water-stressed and projected to be water-scarce by 2025, can’t afford to wait.</p>.<p>China’s not just building a dam; it’s building leverage. The Mohmand project, part of the CPEC, complements other ventures such as the Diamer-Bhasha Dam. These projects scream strategic partnership, especially as India flexes its upstream advantage. But here’s the catch: China, upstream of India on the Brahmaputra River, might take a page from India’s playbook and block water flows, which supply 30% of India’s freshwater. This tit-for-tat could spiral, with each country weaponising rivers to choke the other’s economy. Add in the risk of Pakistan viewing water cut-offs as an “act of war,” and you’ve got a recipe for instability in a nuclear-armed neighbourhood.</p>.<p class="bodytext">Imagine a chessboard where rivers are pawns, and dams are knights. China’s move to speed up the Mohmand Dam is a check, not checkmate, in a game where no one can afford to lose. It’s a reminder that in South Asia, water isn’t just a resource – it’s power, survival, and a spark that could ignite a firestorm. As India, Pakistan, and China manoeuvre, the hope is for cooler heads to prevail before the rivers run dry.</p>.<p class="bodytext"><span class="italic"><em>(The writer is an author and businessman based in Nepal)</em></span></p>
