China’s new plan, India’s old dilemma

India must re-envisage its national technology policy as a strategic framework to prepare for competition, like the kind showcased in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

The National People’s Congress (NPC) of the People’s Republic of China recently approved its 15th five-year plan (15FYP) for 2026-2030. If there were to be one key phrase of the new plan, it would be ‘high quality development’, which is important if China seeks to avoid the middle-income trap, increase domestic consumption, and battle supply chain issues.

This plan combines continuity with previous plans and a shift towards new ideas in response to China’s economic slowdown. The continuity lies largely in its energy strategy, which emphasises green development at home while treating it as an opportunity to capture market leadership, dismantle domestic trade barriers, and increase social security and consumption. The new ideas focus on reviving old industrial zones, and promoting technology-centric unicorns such as Deepseek. Overall, the plan aligns with China’s second centenary goal: to develop China into a ‘great modern socialist country’ by 2049.

China still struggles to increase domestic consumption, which is structurally constrained, leaving it dependent on external markets despite its rhetoric. However, the global dependence on China for infrastructure — solar power components, generators, and electric vehicles — remains strong, with exports rising 20% in 2026. Leveraging its industrial capacity, China is positioning itself at the centre of the global clean energy business, especially as the United States has withdrawn from mitigation commitments. The 15FYP aims to reciprocate this dominance in new technologies. Notably, ‘artificial intelligence’ appears over 50 times in the 15FYP, compared to less than 10 mentions in the previous plan. New keywords such as ‘technological self-reliance’, ‘carbon peaking’, and ‘new quality productive forces’, highlight China’s current concerns and future growth drivers, particularly in fields like chip manufacturing.

What it means for India

For India, this plan carries significant consequences. First, it signals that China is serious about getting out of its dependence on the West, even while it wants other countries to do business with it. By combining economic security goals with development strategies and industrial policies, China is reshaping its global posture. For India, the implications are clear: trade with China already reflects deep dependence, with the deficit well above $100 billion in 2025.

China enjoys a significant gap with India in AI technology capacity, whereas India is seeking a leading role in AI governance with events like the AI Summit, held last month in New Delhi. India can shape global norms for safe, ethical and surveillance-free AI governance, which will influence China’s ability to control and shape global standards. The plan also outlines strategies to upgrade old industries, offering lessons for India’s energy and transport sectors — particularly coal, railways and urban infrastructure in tier-two cities, where China has made notable progress. The big lesson, however, is the need for India to invest in innovation to insert itself as an inevitable force in global supply chains.

An important strategic component of China’s plan is the expansion of border infrastructure, including upgrades to Tibet highways and construction of a new road in Xinjiang parallel to the disputed India-China border. China frames these projects as economic development and border stability measures, but. They also enhance rapid deployment capacity near the border. Work is in progress to build a nearly 2,000 km long railway line parallel to the Lhasa-Hotan highway. This railway line is expected to be its most expensive project per kilometre. Work on the construction of the Dushanzi-Kuqa Highway in Xinjiang began last year and is expected to be completed by 2032. These projects strengthen China’s military and logistical presence along the border, with ‘safety’ serving as justification for permanent deployments. India is also upgrading strategic infrastructure in both eastern and western sectors, raising concerns that improved connectivity could lead to more border incidents.

India has recently revised its investment rules regarding China, amending Press Note 3 issued after the 2020 Galwan clashes. India must now leverage the US-China trade war and the unilateral US tariffs to get high-quality Chinese investments that reduce trade dependence. India must also re-envisage its national technology policy as a strategic framework to prepare for competition, as the kind showcased in China’s 15^th Five-Year Plan.

Avinash Godbole is Professor and Associate Academic Dean, JSLH, JGU. Views expressed are personal. X: @avingodb.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH)