Climate change: Grim forecast for India

The latest Climate Transparency Report, which was released recently, has reaffirmed the serious concerns over climate change and its impact on society and economy, with specific reference to India. The report, which was prepared by experts from the G-20 nations, has stated that India would be the worst-hit by climate change among all the countries in the group. India suffered a loss of 5.4% of its GDP in 2021 from climate events. The forecast for the near future is equally grim. The annual damage from weather events will rise by 49% and labour productivity will decline by 5% soon. Though India is responsible for only 3% of global emissions, 142 million Indians, or about 10% of its population, will be exposed to climate disasters. Crop yields are falling, and workers, labour migrants and low-income households will be especially vulnerable. But everyone will be affected in some way or the other because climate does not discriminate among people, groups or regions.

Climate change impact assessments have been made in the past. But the report has made the most specific study of India in comparison to other countries and should be considered as a projection of the dire scenarios to unravel in the future. Though all countries will be affected, India will be hit harder than others because of several reasons. It has diverse geographical features and climatic conditions, a large population with a preponderance of the poor, high population density, and poor infrastructure and facilities that are not equipped to handle the quick changes that are happening.

The report is the most comprehensive annual review of G-20 countries’ climate action and this year’s special theme is energy use. It has noted that several countries including India have submitted stronger Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets over time, but they still fall short of the aim of limiting temperature rise due to global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. India has a long way to go in terms of policy formulation and implementation. Though climate change has been accepted as a serious threat and lip service is paid to efforts to counter it, in actual practice it gets much less attention than it deserves. The responsibility for effective climate actions rests mainly with governments at all levels, including national, state and local, and the first touchstone of any policy or project should be its impact. Climate consciousness should shape individual decisions, too. That was the message of LiFE, a global mass movement for individual and collective action on the environment, launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, but the message should be heard and acted upon.