Climate, inflation and elections: Extreme weather ahead

General election next year may have a new challenger on the horizon that the BJP must contend with: El Nino

El Nino and La Nina are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that influence climate conditions worldwide. While La Nina benefits India, El Nino creates warmer winters and dryer and hotter summers. El Nino is characterised by an abnormal warming of surface Ocean currents in the east and central equatorial Pacific, which affects weather patterns across many regions of the globe. It leads to poor summer monsoon rains in India but is associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia.

The World Meteorological Organisation has declared that El Nino is already underway and that there is a 90% chance that it will continue during the second half of 2023. Its Secretary General, Petteri Taals, stated that the onset of El Nino will likely lead to breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat worldwide. This declaration serves as a signal to governments around the world to mobilise preparations and limit the impacts on health, ecosystems, and economics. Early warning and anticipated action for extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to saving lives and livelihoods.

The first La Nina of the 21st century, and the third since 1950, occurred from 2020 to 2023. The cooling effects of La Nina conditions temporarily slowed the rising global temperature. Despite this, the past eight years have been the warmest on record. It indicates an unprecedented increase in fossil fuel burning and deforestation.

The RBI Governor also finds El Nino a roadblock in his attempt to tame inflation and bring it down below 4 per cent. The RBI’s study concludes that despite El Nino, rainfall will be close to normal and inflation will remain benign. The study further indicates that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) often interacts with El Nino and La Nina to determine the actual rainfall. IOD is the difference between the sea surface temperatures of the western and eastern Indian Oceans. If the temperature in the west is higher than the east, it leads to more rainfall in India (positive IOD) and vice versa. The RBI’s indication is also corroborated by the evidence of high average inflation in negative IOD years. La Nina years also experienced a wide range of agricultural growth and inflation, but it has remained a function of IOD oscillations.

In one of its releases, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) admitted that there is a high probability of El Nino conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific during the middle of the monsoon and continuing until the first quarter of 2024. However, Director General of IMD Mrutyunjay Mohapatra is hopeful of positive IOD conditions in the remaining period of the monsoon that will neutralise the impact. IMD has been consistently forecasting normal rainfall in the current season.

Another extreme weather phenomenon has been experienced in North West India since July 9, and torrential rains for four to five days have caused landslides, flooding, and the washing away of buildings, cars, roads, and bridges, bringing misery everywhere. More than 100 lives are lost in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Chandigarh, and Delhi. Experts have said that the downpour in the region is attributed to the deadly confluence of two systems: monsoon winds and western disturbances. Earlier in 2013, Kedarnath flooding was caused by a similar confluence that resulted in the deaths of thousands of pilgrims. Such interactions are increasingly likely to cause incessant rain and flooding in a warming world. In mid-June 2013, a western disturbance sucked moisture towards northern India from a low pressure system that originated in the Bay of Bengal.

Earlier, cyclone Biparjoy brought a lot of rain to Gujarat, west Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and south Uttar Pradesh in June 2023, and now the confluence of western disturbances and monsoon circulation has brought excess rain within a few days. The cloudbursts in big cities like Delhi are becoming more frequent. Delhi’s drainage network can carry only 50 mm of rain-fall in 24 hours. It is time to upgrade it to 100 mm.

Excessive rains have been experienced in many countries during the same period, leading to red alerts in New York and downpours in parts of the US, China, Japan, and Russia, inundating several areas. The forecast indicates that human misery will continue throughout July.

As accurately forecast by IMD, north-west India received excessive rains. But they do not benefit rain-fed agriculture, as heavy downpours for a few days are followed by prolonged dry spells, even though the total rainfall for the season is normal. On the contrary, the flooding damages the crops. The RBI may find it difficult to tame food inflation.

Central and peninsular India have struggled with elusive normal rainfall due to El Nino conditions. One can only hope that positive IOD oscillations offer some relief by neutralising the impact. However, El Nino has the potential to cause a warmer winter this year and bring down wheat production in the country. In an election year, this could be concerning for the ruling dispensation.

Looking back at history, famines during El Nino years have had significant implications for governments. In 1876–78 and 1899–1900, owing to the mismanagement of British rule, it claimed 10 million lives. The 1876–78 famine triggered an economic critique of colonial government management by Dadabhai Noroji and Romesh Chunder Dutta and prompted William Wedderburn and A O Hume to establish the Indian National Congress, a platform for Indians to express their opinions against famine management. The El Nino-induced drought of 1918 led to the Kheda Satyagraha, which brought fame to Mahatma Gandhi and Sardar Patel. In post-independent India, El Nino-induced drought brought the green revolution in 1964–65 and 1965–66.

Despite severe droughts in 1982–83 and 2015–16, the Governments led by Indira Gandhi and Narendra Modi, respectively, sailed through due to effective responses to the challenges. Moreover, these were not election years. 2023–24 El Nino has the potential to throw surprises into the 2024 Lok Sabha election result.

(The writer is a retired Head of Forest Force, Karnataka)