<p>With the ending of the controversial two-month-long military manoeuvres between the US and South Korea in the last days of April, which provoked recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula, peace, however uneasy that may be, seems to have returned. Both the US and South Korea, however, are not expected to remain off guard and they will continue to watch out for potential provocations by the North, including a missile launch. <br /><br /></p>.<p>Ever since the annual ‘Foal Eagle’ air, ground and naval exercises that kicked off on March 1 with participation of 10,000 US troops and a far higher number of South Korean military forces, the Korean Peninsula has been locked in a cycle of escalating military rhetoric following the participation of nuclear-capable US B-52 and B-2 stealth bombers in the joint drills. <br /><br />The US move prompted North Korea to step up its war rhetoric, authorising its army to launch ‘preemptive nuclear strikes’ on the US. Pyongyang warned that if Washington and Seoul launched a preemptive attack, the conflict would “not be limited to a local war, but develop into an all-out war, a nuclear war.”<br /><br />The question that now arises is, as the joint military drills end, how will North Korea actually react? Though there seems to be near unanimity of views amongst Korea watchers that there would be dramatic de-escalation of tensions, there also exists a minority view which says this might be the moment the North lashes out again. Though an indefinite period of calm is expected, it cannot be overlooked that Pyongyang views the annual military defensive exercises as an aggressive invasion threat and that it reserves the right to retaliate militarily if provoked directly. <br /><br />Legitimate reasons<br /><br />From Pyongyang’s perspective, its choice of tough stance and belligerent rhetoric deterred the US and South Korea from any military strike. So, Pyongyang can have now legitimate reason to tell its people that the North Korean military successfully warded off the threat from the ‘imperialists’. Now Pyongyang can find itself in a position to enter dialogue with the South without appearing to lose face. But if the trends of the past few months indicate, such hopes would be like asking for the moon. On the contrary, Pyongyang might find the general atmosphere ideal to strike militarily, a la March and November incidents of 2010. This is because North Korea has been known to purposely raise tensions in an effort to rattle new administrations in Seoul or Washington.<br /><br />Throughout the exercises, the US displayed some impressive weaponry, including B-52 bombers and a nuclear-armed submarine. After the exercises began, the North announced it was scrapping an armistice agreement that effectively put the Korean War on hold, and said it was entering a ‘state of war.’ The North also cut two hotlines to South Korea, symbols of North-South cooperation, but left a joint economic region alone until April. The jointly-operated Kaesong Industrial Park, the last major symbol of cooperation between South and North was designed to economically benefit both sides, providing South Korean companies with cheap labour, and North Koreans with much needed income. <br /><br />Seoul’s decision to withdraw the employees, announced by South Korea’s unification minister, Ryoo Kihl-jae, called into question the fate of the Kaesong Complex, the last symbol of inter-Korean rapprochement. The joint complex that remained idle since the start of April amid growing inter-Korean tensions. North Korea denied entry to Kaesong to South Korean workers, saying Seoul used the joint project to insult the North's leaders. South Korean nationals, who chose to remain at the site had only small amounts of food and supplies left. All operations at Kaesong were suspended on April 9, when Pyongyang pulled out all of its 53,000 staff working for the 123 South Korean companies. Six days before, the North banned South Korean personnel from entering the complex.<br /><br />The situation at Kaesong is one aspect of the crisis that appears set to continue. There is not yet any indication that Seoul and Pyongyang will cooperate in finding a way to get operations at the complex back underway. The complex brought in about $80 million in revenue for North Korea in 2012, so there is a large financial incentive for the North to restart business there. While South Korea is interested to restart operations at Kaesong, Seoul would not accept just any conditions demanded by North Korea. <br /><br />Throughout the war games, it was speculated that North Korea’s intention was to stir tensions and then pull back at the last minute from any kind of engagement in an effort to strengthen its bargaining position when it returns to the table at some later date. The general principle is to escalate tensions in order to later be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Sooner or later, Pyongyang will realise that escalating tensions would not serve any purpose and while keeping its nuclear weapons, it must keep its doors open for dialogue if it expects the international community to bail it out with aid and from its economic mess that is self-created. <br /><br /><em>(The writer is visiting faculty at the JNU, New Delhi)</em></p>
<p>With the ending of the controversial two-month-long military manoeuvres between the US and South Korea in the last days of April, which provoked recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula, peace, however uneasy that may be, seems to have returned. Both the US and South Korea, however, are not expected to remain off guard and they will continue to watch out for potential provocations by the North, including a missile launch. <br /><br /></p>.<p>Ever since the annual ‘Foal Eagle’ air, ground and naval exercises that kicked off on March 1 with participation of 10,000 US troops and a far higher number of South Korean military forces, the Korean Peninsula has been locked in a cycle of escalating military rhetoric following the participation of nuclear-capable US B-52 and B-2 stealth bombers in the joint drills. <br /><br />The US move prompted North Korea to step up its war rhetoric, authorising its army to launch ‘preemptive nuclear strikes’ on the US. Pyongyang warned that if Washington and Seoul launched a preemptive attack, the conflict would “not be limited to a local war, but develop into an all-out war, a nuclear war.”<br /><br />The question that now arises is, as the joint military drills end, how will North Korea actually react? Though there seems to be near unanimity of views amongst Korea watchers that there would be dramatic de-escalation of tensions, there also exists a minority view which says this might be the moment the North lashes out again. Though an indefinite period of calm is expected, it cannot be overlooked that Pyongyang views the annual military defensive exercises as an aggressive invasion threat and that it reserves the right to retaliate militarily if provoked directly. <br /><br />Legitimate reasons<br /><br />From Pyongyang’s perspective, its choice of tough stance and belligerent rhetoric deterred the US and South Korea from any military strike. So, Pyongyang can have now legitimate reason to tell its people that the North Korean military successfully warded off the threat from the ‘imperialists’. Now Pyongyang can find itself in a position to enter dialogue with the South without appearing to lose face. But if the trends of the past few months indicate, such hopes would be like asking for the moon. On the contrary, Pyongyang might find the general atmosphere ideal to strike militarily, a la March and November incidents of 2010. This is because North Korea has been known to purposely raise tensions in an effort to rattle new administrations in Seoul or Washington.<br /><br />Throughout the exercises, the US displayed some impressive weaponry, including B-52 bombers and a nuclear-armed submarine. After the exercises began, the North announced it was scrapping an armistice agreement that effectively put the Korean War on hold, and said it was entering a ‘state of war.’ The North also cut two hotlines to South Korea, symbols of North-South cooperation, but left a joint economic region alone until April. The jointly-operated Kaesong Industrial Park, the last major symbol of cooperation between South and North was designed to economically benefit both sides, providing South Korean companies with cheap labour, and North Koreans with much needed income. <br /><br />Seoul’s decision to withdraw the employees, announced by South Korea’s unification minister, Ryoo Kihl-jae, called into question the fate of the Kaesong Complex, the last symbol of inter-Korean rapprochement. The joint complex that remained idle since the start of April amid growing inter-Korean tensions. North Korea denied entry to Kaesong to South Korean workers, saying Seoul used the joint project to insult the North's leaders. South Korean nationals, who chose to remain at the site had only small amounts of food and supplies left. All operations at Kaesong were suspended on April 9, when Pyongyang pulled out all of its 53,000 staff working for the 123 South Korean companies. Six days before, the North banned South Korean personnel from entering the complex.<br /><br />The situation at Kaesong is one aspect of the crisis that appears set to continue. There is not yet any indication that Seoul and Pyongyang will cooperate in finding a way to get operations at the complex back underway. The complex brought in about $80 million in revenue for North Korea in 2012, so there is a large financial incentive for the North to restart business there. While South Korea is interested to restart operations at Kaesong, Seoul would not accept just any conditions demanded by North Korea. <br /><br />Throughout the war games, it was speculated that North Korea’s intention was to stir tensions and then pull back at the last minute from any kind of engagement in an effort to strengthen its bargaining position when it returns to the table at some later date. The general principle is to escalate tensions in order to later be able to negotiate from a position of strength. Sooner or later, Pyongyang will realise that escalating tensions would not serve any purpose and while keeping its nuclear weapons, it must keep its doors open for dialogue if it expects the international community to bail it out with aid and from its economic mess that is self-created. <br /><br /><em>(The writer is visiting faculty at the JNU, New Delhi)</em></p>
