Donald Trump unveils audacious Syrian strategy

Donald Trump has unveiled a major policy shift, as the US seeks to reassert influence in West Asia without engaging in additional military interventions

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently forecast that Syria may face full-scale civil war within weeks. That makes US President Donald Trump’s meeting with the  interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Riyadh on May 14 a most intriguing act. Did Rubio exaggerate? Is Trump naive to put his eggs in the Syrian basket? Both can’t be right. Yet, they can be — Trump presidency revels in contradictions. 

Trump’s four-day tour of the Gulf region has been a resounding success. Trump told reporters "that was a great four days, historic four days”. He claimed that he was able to secure deals totalling more than $2tn. Indeed, the visit's optics were striking too. Trump reset the partnership with Saudi Arabia that frayed under former US President Joe Biden, which is all the more creditable, since the Gulf states are transitioning from a US-centric foreign policy outlook to diversify their external relationships.

From a geopolitical perspective, the most sensational outcome lies in Trump green lighting the normalisation of the US’ ties with Syria. Considering Ahmed al-Sharaa’s chequered life as a dreaded al-Qaeda  terrorist, the germane seeds are to be traced to al-Sharaa’s imprisonment by US troops in Iraq for several years. He was a fit case for being put away in Guantánamo Bay but the US instead allowed him to return to Syria.  

Trump lavishly praised al-Sharaa to reporters after the meeting, which was scheduled on the sidelines of Trump’s get-together with the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Trump said al-Sharaa  was a “young, attractive guy. Tough guy. Strong past. Very strong past. Fighter.” Trump added, “He’s got a real shot at holding it together. He’s a real leader. He led a charge, and he’s pretty amazing.” 

Trump told the GCC leaders he was ending the US sanctions against Syria. This high drama is almost entirely to be seen through the geopolitical prism. The substantive message Trump conveyed to al-Sharaa was about crafting a pivotal relationship between Syria and Israel.

There is some bold thinking here, as evident in Trump’s choice of Thomas Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkiye, as his special envoy to Syria last week. Barrack is a bird of the same feather as Trump’s Middle East special envoy Steve Witkoff (who is also leading the indirect talks with Iran). Both Barrack and Witkoff, like their patron, made their fortune as real estate developers. Barrack also claims to have “extensive experience dealing with business” in West Asia — Saudi Arabia, in particular, where he began his professional career as a young finance lawyer for a major international law firm assigned to project finance for Fluor, Bechtel, and Aramco. 

Three things must be noted here. First, as in Gaza, Trump is besotted with the idea of turning Syria into a honeypot for Wall Street. He’s taken a leap of faith that Islamist terrorists like al-Sharaa can also be corrupted and turned into Philistines. Maybe, they are narrow-minded and hostile to the life of the mind and are indifferent to cultural and aesthetic values. But so long as their materialistic and wealth-oriented worldview and tastes make them geopolitical tools, what is the problem?

Second, Trump realises that the window of opportunity to calm the storm brewing in Syria won’t remain open for long. The removal of sanctions enables US agencies, especially intelligence, to openly consort with al-Sharaa. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are stepping in and loosening their purse strings so that Trump’s audacious enterprise remains self-financing. 

Third, Trump is exploiting the indirect engagement with Iran to keep Tehran off balance even as the ‘wahhabisation’ of Syria goes ahead. Tehran has a difficult choice to make — prioritise the lifting of US sanctions or resist the spectre of the ascendancy of anti-Shia ‘Takfiris' in Syria, once the throbbing heart of the Islamic culture. Trump is wagering that Tehran will act pragmatically. 

With Hezbollah weakened and Hamas on the run, if Syria is brought on board, Israel’s regional dominance in the Levant becomes a geopolitical reality, which can open up untold vistas to create wealth. The East Mediterranean coast holds one of the richest deposits of hydrocarbon reserves, which can fuel European economies. (The EU has followed Trump’s lead to lift sanctions against Syria.) 

It is an open secret that Israel has been working with al-Qaeda groups. Therefore, the secret talks between al-Sharaa and Israel come as no surprise. The two sides are negotiating to a mutual understanding to purge Iran’s influence in Syria, tacitly accept Israel’s occupation of the Golan Heights and the swathe of Syrian lands that Israeli military occupied lately, vanquish the resistance groups, and, incrementally world towards the induction of Syria into the Abraham Accords. Israel already has a strong relationship with the Kurdish groups in Syria as proxies in regional politics. 

The US is moving into the driver’s seat in Damascus, as Trump's meeting with al-Sharaa shifts the balance of power in West Asia. Barrack travelled to Syria last week to raise the Stars and Stripes in the long-shuttered US Embassy Residence in Damascus proclaiming the growing ties between Washington and the new Syrian government. Al-Sharaa received him and he attended the signing of a whopping $7 billion agreement for a consortium of Qatari, Turkish, and US companies on a 5,000-megawatt energy project, which is expected to meet over half of Syria’s electricity needs. 

In a statement on X on Thursday, Trump announced, “Tom [Barrack] understands there is great potential in working with Syria to stop Radicalism, improve Relations, and secure Peace in the Middle East. Together, we will Make America, and the World, SAFE AGAIN!” 

An ex-Qaeda leader as the US’ key partner “to stop Radicalism,” improve US-Syrian relations, and “secure Peace in the Middle East” —Trump has unveiled a major policy shift, as the US seeks to reassert influence in West Asia without engaging in additional military interventions.

(M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat.)

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)