BJP wrests Delhi with canny campaign

The scale of the Aam Aadmi Party’s collapse and the BJP’s victory in the Delhi Assembly elections may not have been expected by those who thought Arvind Kejriwal’s party was fighting a tough, or even a losing, battle. The AAP government created many of the odds it had to fight against. It burst into Delhi politics on a wave of idealism and a promise to cleanse politics and governance.

It offered a package of welfare measures which appealed to the people. It had a charismatic leader and a supporting cast with no great burden of the past. But the idealism wore off over the years, and the achievements in governance, such as those in health and education, stagnated. Failures on matters such as supply of drinking water, clearing of garbage and cleaning of the Yamuna hurt the party. Most importantly, corruption charges damaged the image and credibility of its leaders.

Whether the charges were true or not, they were enough to alienate some sections from the party, especially after the jailing of senior leaders, including Kejriwal. The AAP did not have the rootedness of a regional party, nor an ideology, but only some policies whose appeal varied. 

The gap between the AAP and the BJP is only about 2%, but it lost about 10% of the votes it had. It is the bipolar nature of the contest that magnified the BJP’s victory and helped it run away with the election. Its campaign was professional, paid attention to detail, and featured the country’s best campaigner. It started the campaign months ago, with its charges against the AAP government. It matched and sought to improve on the AAP’s promises. It is pointed out that the tax sops in the Union budget may have had an impact on voters’ preferences in a city with a large middle class. But the results show that the BJP improved its appeal among all sections. Its double engine slogan must have appealed to some voters who felt that the AAP government, shackled by the Centre in many ways, would find it difficult to function.  

The Congress did not win a seat but marginally improved its vote share. There is a claim that the AAP might have fared better had there been an alliance between the two parties. But it is chemistry more than arithmetic that often influences electoral choices. In any case, the Congress did not want to help the AAP and thought that it was in its own interest to damage and downsize that party. The impact of that policy on an Opposition alliance is yet to be known.