Election results show enduring Modi appeal

In the elections to the state assemblies of Chattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana, the BJP has asserted its dominance in spectacular fashion in three states, wresting two from the Congress and retaining one. When the results from the states are taken collectively and individually, they amount to a major sweep which the Congress could not resist. Its best hope, Chhattisgarh, has also been captured decisively by the BJP. Against the background of these severe debacles, the Congress victory in Telangana brings some relief, but no great consolation, to the party. This could be as much a defeat of Chief Minister K Chandrashekhara Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) as a victory of the Congress. The Congress worked well to come to power, but the anti-incumbency sentiment against the BRS government also helped it a lot.

The results also mark again the position of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the most popular leader and vote getter whom the Congress could not counter with a leader or strategy. The BJP went to the polls everywhere without projecting a local leader, and totally under the leadership of Narendra Modi. The credit should also go to the party for formulating and implementing a strategy that suited each state. It has never lacked in organisational strength and resources. In Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, the party came far from behind, and in Madhya Pradesh, it beat what even a few months ago seemed a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. Madhya Pradesh now ranks with Gujarat as a state with a most enduring BJP government. It should also be noted that a party wins elections not just on its own strength but also on other parties’ weaknesses. The Congress’ weaknesses in the states where it held power helped the BJP to make gains. The Congress has now lost the tenuous presence it had in the Hindi heartland, except in the small state of Himachal Pradesh. It has found it is no match for the BJP in one-on-one contests.

The results are likely to have an impact on the Opposition I.N.D.I.A alliance. The Congress had hoped to be the driver and leader of the alliance, but its decimation in the North will raise questions about its ability to lead. Its strong points are its presence in all states and a visible national leadership, but partners have seen it as a weak link too. It should also be seen if the I.N.D.I.A grouping will remain the same. These elections have divided the country into a North dominated by the BJP and a South dominated by non-BJP parties. These factors will have an impact on the plans for the 2024 elections.