Monsoon deficit casts a shadow over India

The possibility that India will see a below-par monsoon this year, after two years of above-normal rainfall, should be a cause for concern. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an 8 per cent deficit in its April forecast for the year.

Private forecaster Skymet has also reported that the monsoon season from June to September will see below normal rainfall. The main reason for the shortfall is the possibility of El Niño, a climate phenomenon in the Central Pacific Ocean. It involves unusual heating of the ocean’s surface waters, which weakens the movement of cloud-carrying winds and disrupts normal monsoon activity.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has also reported that this year will be a super El Niño year. The IMD expects that the Indian Ocean Dipole, another climate phenomenon relating to ocean temperatures, may moderate the impact of El Niño. But El Niño years have mostly been poor monsoon years, and India should, therefore, be prepared for a deficient monsoon.

There is a margin of 5 per cent in the IMD forecasts. There is also a difference of 2 per cent in the quantum of rainfall between the two forecasts. But these may not make any substantial difference. Credit rating agencies have issued notes of caution about agriculture, the sector most hit by a deficient monsoon.

The caution comes on top of concerns over the disruption of fertiliser and fuel supply caused by the war in West Asia. Agriculture’s share in GDP has declined by about 8 per cent over the last two decades. That is because of the relatively higher growth of other sectors, a decline in the area under cultivation and a fall in productivity. But agriculture is still the mainstay of the rural sector and provides livelihood to the largest segment of the population.

Any weakening of the sector will hurt rural incomes and demand and have a cascading effect on other sectors. Rural employment will be affected, especially because the MGNREGA has been weakened.

Both the Union and state governments should start planning for a below-normal monsoon. Farmers should be counselled about crops that need less water, and seeds of such crops, along with adequate quantities of fertilisers, should be stocked. Plans should be made for optimum use of water and efficient management of reservoir levels. A deficient monsoon will affect drinking water supplies to cities, towns and even villages. The industrial sector will also be affected.

Soaring temperatures and a shortage of rain will affect the health sector. Climate change is likely to aggravate the situation. Preparations should be made to meet contingencies in all these sectors.