States’ vote with national resonance

The Assembly polls will test the incumbents; outcomes will also shape a larger, ideological narrative.

Four states and a Union Territory have entered the run-up to the Assembly elections. Over the past many months, political parties have been readying themselves for the fray. 

Now, the poll schedule announced by the Election Commission of India has presented them with a challenge – a quick shifting of gears, from preparation to campaign on the ground. Assam, Kerala, and the UT of Puducherry will vote first on April 9, followed by Tamil Nadu on April 23, and West Bengal on April 23 and April 29. The votes will be counted on May 4.

These elections are significant for the stakes they carry for India’s larger opposition bloc. The states are distinct in terms of what they signify politically, but together, three of them constitute a credible ideological opposition to the BJP at the Centre.

The governments in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and West Bengal, led by the DMK, the CPM, and the Trinamool Congress, respectively, will have their share of incumbency-driven concerns. But political coalitions in these states have held power for multiple terms, and these alliances will take no chances as they kick off their campaigns for continuance.

In Tamil Nadu, the DMK, along with Congress and other allies, will go to the polls on the plank of Dravidian identity and the government’s performance record. Its traditional rival, the AIADMK, is allied with the BJP, which is eyeing its big breakthrough in the state. However, the picture is not clear yet, with confusion prevailing about the position of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, the newly-formed outfit led by actor Vijay.

The Congress-led opposition alliance in Kerala, the UDF, may fancy its chances but will have to navigate the coalition’s inherent weaknesses – a lack of discipline, factionalism, and gaps in campaign strategy.

In West Bengal, the BJP, which has steadily improved its position and is now the state’s primary opposition party, will be engaged in a fierce, high-stakes battle to topple the TMC.

But the party faces a formidable opponent in Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who will set the tone for a no-holds-barred contest. In Assam in 2021, the difference in vote shares between the BJP and the Congress was not overwhelming.

The 2026 results will also count for the polarisation the state has witnessed over five years. It is worth noting that the elections follow the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls. Their outcomes will also be scrutinised for the impact, if any, of the revision.