<p>The results of the elections to four of the five assemblies over the last two months were largely not unexpected, and only one of them had defied firm predictions. The outcome of that unpredictable contest in West Bengal turned out to be most stunning and remarkable, with the Trinamool Congress led by chief minister Mamata Banerjee fighting off the stiff challenge posed by the BJP, and coming out on top, though she herself lost her seat. It was expected that the BJP would retain power in Assam, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) would secure a second term in Kerala, the DMK-led alliance would topple the AIADMK government in Tamil Nadu and there would be a regime change in Puducherry. All these possibilities have materialised with varying margins of victory and defeat. The elections were held in two extremities of the country which are on the margins of national politics. The politics and the electoral considerations in the North-East and the East and in the deep South are also different from each other. But the outcome will have a bearing on national politics, and may set directions for politics and governance in the near future. </p>.<p>Though the election in every state is important to that state, from a national point of view the present round of assembly elections was much about West Bengal. The results from West Bengal are most important because of the outreach the BJP made in that state which it considered to be the frontier to cross after its domination of the northern, central and western parts of the country. The campaign was especially important for the party because it is a big state and has had a political tradition very different from the one that it is used to. The Trinamool Congress government was thought to be vulnerable on many counts because it was in power for 10 years with no great record in crucial areas of governance and development. Corruption was a major issue. Because the Congress and the Left, which are the main opposition parties, were in a state of decline and could not make use of the opportunity, the BJP thought it could fill the vacuum, and it did. It won 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 election. Since the state has a large Muslim population and many Bangladeshi immigrants it was good ground for its brand of politics. It also invested heavily in the campaign, splurging huge political and financial resources, with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and all top leaders storming through the state for weeks. Even after all this Mamata Banerjee was able to secure a sparkling victory, and has improved her seats and vote share. All credit should go to her for fighting vehemently against many odds to protect her political territory. Whatever the BJP gained was at the expense of the Congress and the Left, which have been decimated in the state. </p>.<p>In Assam where the BJP has come back to power, the Opposition, which is mainly the Congress in alliance with the AIADUF, a party that represents the Muslims mainly in the southern parts of the state, has lost further ground. The BJP government was not able to act on its promise of protecting the Assamese identity by identifying and deporting immigrants. But the party was largely undented, as it has a strong local leadership and its government has a reasonably good record. The Congress did not have an identifiable leadership after the death of Tarun Gogoi, and it could not present a credible challenge by way of policies.</p>.<p>In Tamil Nadu, it was expected that the DMK-led alliance which includes the Congress and the Left patties would come back to power after 10 years of rule by the AIADMK. This was the first assembly election to be held in the state after the death of M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalitha. The AIADMK government under Edappadi K Palaniswami was put together after the death of Jayalalitha and it survived on the support of the Central government. The BJP has been keen to make an entry into Tamil Nadu which has been dominated by Dravidian politics. But the DMK under MK Stalin has won a decisive victory and is poised to come to power, though the AIADMK has been able to hold itself together. But in neighbouring Puducherry, the NDA comprising the NR Congress, the BJP and the AIADMK is set to form the government. </p>.<p>In Kerala, it was expected that the LDF government of Pinarayi Vijayan would come back to power, defeating the Congress-led UDF, though the state had for decades voted out incumbent governments, alternating between the two alliances every five years. The LDF government’s record of governance stood it in good stead, and its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and successive natural disasters like the 2018 floods seems to have earned it popular goodwill and helped it to improve its position. The UDF did not have a clear and identifiable leadership and its main constituent, the Congress, has weakened over the years. </p>.<p>The results of the elections will have an impact on politics at the national level. The Congress’ failure to improve its position in Assam and in Kerala will further weaken it at the national level. It can lead to more questions about the Gandhi family’s leadership of the party. Mamata Banerjee’s stature will rise and she may be considered as the leader best equipped to challenge the BJP, leading a proposed federal front. It will not go unnoticed that the BJP has hardly won a state assembly election in recent years and Narendra Modi’s charisma has not worked at the state level. </p>
<p>The results of the elections to four of the five assemblies over the last two months were largely not unexpected, and only one of them had defied firm predictions. The outcome of that unpredictable contest in West Bengal turned out to be most stunning and remarkable, with the Trinamool Congress led by chief minister Mamata Banerjee fighting off the stiff challenge posed by the BJP, and coming out on top, though she herself lost her seat. It was expected that the BJP would retain power in Assam, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) would secure a second term in Kerala, the DMK-led alliance would topple the AIADMK government in Tamil Nadu and there would be a regime change in Puducherry. All these possibilities have materialised with varying margins of victory and defeat. The elections were held in two extremities of the country which are on the margins of national politics. The politics and the electoral considerations in the North-East and the East and in the deep South are also different from each other. But the outcome will have a bearing on national politics, and may set directions for politics and governance in the near future. </p>.<p>Though the election in every state is important to that state, from a national point of view the present round of assembly elections was much about West Bengal. The results from West Bengal are most important because of the outreach the BJP made in that state which it considered to be the frontier to cross after its domination of the northern, central and western parts of the country. The campaign was especially important for the party because it is a big state and has had a political tradition very different from the one that it is used to. The Trinamool Congress government was thought to be vulnerable on many counts because it was in power for 10 years with no great record in crucial areas of governance and development. Corruption was a major issue. Because the Congress and the Left, which are the main opposition parties, were in a state of decline and could not make use of the opportunity, the BJP thought it could fill the vacuum, and it did. It won 18 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 election. Since the state has a large Muslim population and many Bangladeshi immigrants it was good ground for its brand of politics. It also invested heavily in the campaign, splurging huge political and financial resources, with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and all top leaders storming through the state for weeks. Even after all this Mamata Banerjee was able to secure a sparkling victory, and has improved her seats and vote share. All credit should go to her for fighting vehemently against many odds to protect her political territory. Whatever the BJP gained was at the expense of the Congress and the Left, which have been decimated in the state. </p>.<p>In Assam where the BJP has come back to power, the Opposition, which is mainly the Congress in alliance with the AIADUF, a party that represents the Muslims mainly in the southern parts of the state, has lost further ground. The BJP government was not able to act on its promise of protecting the Assamese identity by identifying and deporting immigrants. But the party was largely undented, as it has a strong local leadership and its government has a reasonably good record. The Congress did not have an identifiable leadership after the death of Tarun Gogoi, and it could not present a credible challenge by way of policies.</p>.<p>In Tamil Nadu, it was expected that the DMK-led alliance which includes the Congress and the Left patties would come back to power after 10 years of rule by the AIADMK. This was the first assembly election to be held in the state after the death of M Karunanidhi and J Jayalalitha. The AIADMK government under Edappadi K Palaniswami was put together after the death of Jayalalitha and it survived on the support of the Central government. The BJP has been keen to make an entry into Tamil Nadu which has been dominated by Dravidian politics. But the DMK under MK Stalin has won a decisive victory and is poised to come to power, though the AIADMK has been able to hold itself together. But in neighbouring Puducherry, the NDA comprising the NR Congress, the BJP and the AIADMK is set to form the government. </p>.<p>In Kerala, it was expected that the LDF government of Pinarayi Vijayan would come back to power, defeating the Congress-led UDF, though the state had for decades voted out incumbent governments, alternating between the two alliances every five years. The LDF government’s record of governance stood it in good stead, and its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and successive natural disasters like the 2018 floods seems to have earned it popular goodwill and helped it to improve its position. The UDF did not have a clear and identifiable leadership and its main constituent, the Congress, has weakened over the years. </p>.<p>The results of the elections will have an impact on politics at the national level. The Congress’ failure to improve its position in Assam and in Kerala will further weaken it at the national level. It can lead to more questions about the Gandhi family’s leadership of the party. Mamata Banerjee’s stature will rise and she may be considered as the leader best equipped to challenge the BJP, leading a proposed federal front. It will not go unnoticed that the BJP has hardly won a state assembly election in recent years and Narendra Modi’s charisma has not worked at the state level. </p>
