AUKUS changes everything

Did US tire of India’s hesitation to be a military ally?

The newly announced military partnership ‘AUKUS’ between Australia, the UK and the US will have far-reaching implications for the strategic balance of power in Asia. Although the announcement of the alliance saw no mention of China, AUKUS is a response to Beijing’s increasingly assertive and aggressive rise in the Asia-Pacific. Biden administration officials have cited the need for the US to focus on the China threat as one of the main reasons for its decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. With the announcement of the AUKUS alliance, the US has wasted no time in putting in place a robust alliance to take on China. If in the wake of the US’ ignominious exit from Afghanistan it did seem that US influence in Asia was in terminal decline, AUKUS signals that Washington is acting swiftly and robustly to assert its power in the region. The new alliance indicates how much has changed in the world over the past few years. Three years ago, Australian leaders stated that they did not have to choose between the US and China. Given its strong trade ties with Beijing, Australia was reluctant to enter into a security arrangement with the US. But a nasty trade war that China unleashed on Canberra seems to have changed the latter’s mind. It has not only thrown in its lot with the US, but also a submarine deal will see Australia armed with nuclear-powered submarines.

So, where does that leave the Quad and India? Did the US, tired of India’s hesitation in entering a military alliance, simply decide to move on to more willing partners? However, it does seem that Quad and AUKUS are parallel tracks that the US is undertaking to counter China, with the former involving co-operation among countries in non-military areas such as vaccine diplomacy, and the latter being an overtly military alliance. Whether the two tracks remain separate or the Quad merges with AUKUS in future remains to be seen. Meanwhile, AUKUS will take the pressure off India for a while to submit to a military alliance with the US. It will give New Delhi time to think through the need to join one or not against China.

There are issues of concern, however, that India must plan for. For one, AUKUS could occupy America’s attention, paving the way for Quad to wither away, which could leave India without security arrangements to lean on in times of need. Additionally, military alliances have always triggered arms races, and AUKUS is unlikely to be different. China can be expected to strengthen its military ties with allies like Pakistan, perhaps gift them nuclear submarines. This would have grave implications for India’s security.