The Bihar Assembly election results were a mixture of the expected and the unexpected. Though it was expected at the beginning of the campaign that the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by JD(U) leader and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar would comfortably come back to power, the alliance could only scrape through in a seesaw battle. As the campaign progressed, there was an impression that the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and the Left parties and led by the 31-year-old Tejashwi Yadav, might even win. Most exit polls also supported this view, but the alliance could only make a tough fight of the battle, which went to the wire. As it has turned out, the NDA has only a very narrow majority, but the state will have a continuity in government. But it is a new NDA in a new situation where the relative strength of the BJP and the JD(U), and probably the equations between them, have changed.
Against all the odds that were thought to have been built against it during the campaign, the NDA just about managed to hold on to its tally. This was because the BJP increased its tally. The JD(U) lost ground heavily, showing that Nitish Kumar’s popularity and standing with the people has taken a serious knock. There was an anti-incumbency sentiment against the government, perhaps because of the failure of the government to provide jobs to the youth or to take care of the migrant workers who returned, or for other reasons. But this seems to have affected only the JD(U) and Nitish Kumar, as he was the visible symbol of the alliance and the government. The BJP may have been helped by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaigning. The JD(U) also seems to have been hurt by the posture of the LJP (Lok Janshakti Party) led by Chirag Paswan who, it is thought, may have been put up by the BJP deliberately to hurt its ally. The results show that the tactic, if it was one, succeeded.
The BJP is the major partner in the alliance now and is entitled to lead the government. Nitish Kumar stands diminished and downsized, politically and in terms of numbers. The BJP leadership and Prime Minister Modi have declared unambiguously that he would be the Chief Minister of the new government. Even if the party does not change its stance now, Nitish would be at its mercy in the new dispensation. At present, the two parties do not also have any option other than to stick together, but there is a new politics in Bihar, and politics is always unstable and uncertain.