JOIN USThe BJP launched its campaign for the Bihar Assembly election, to be held later this year, with a virtual rally held on Sunday by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. The election will be held when the state, like the rest of the country, may still be fighting the Covid-19 pandemic or will hopefully be seeing it retreating. As the virtual rally shows, the nature of the campaign will change but, as Amit Shah’s performance shows, the narrative and substance of the campaign will hardly change. The BJP is going into the campaign with Chief Minister and JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar on its side. They had fought each other in the last Assembly elections in 2015. The combination has caste arithmetic on its side, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar to fetch votes and Amit Shah to strategise the campaign. These are favourable factors for the NDA.
Amit Shah has declared that the NDA would form the next government with a two-thirds majority, and has underlined the declaration with a pronouncement that Nitish Kumar will lead the contest, lest there be any doubt about the leadership of the NDA in the state. The themes to be unveiled in
the campaign are the expected fare: the various claimed achievements of the Modi government, including the scrapping of Article 370, the abolition of triple talaq and the fight against the coronavirus. While the traction of the first two in a state election is debatable, the coronavirus situation is still developing. Some of the consequences of the sudden lockdown imposed by Modi, like the distress of migrant workers, have hit Bihar hard. The claim that the government has managed the Covid-19 situation may not appeal to the people now, and is yet to be tested. The social and economic impact of the return of migrants could influence voting behaviour in the state where migrants’ remittances play a big role in the economy. Nitish’s image has taken some knocks, too. Shah also raised the banner of nationalism, as no BJP campaign is complete without an appeal to it.
The Opposition is in disarray, with RJD leader Lalu Prasad in jail and the Congress and other unrecognisable parties not able to make any significant contribution to an alliance that can credibly challenge the NDA. But the protests staged by the RJD before Shah’s virtual rally evoked good response and the criticism of the Nitish government over the handling of the migrant issue has found some resonance. It will take some time, however, for the scenario to become clear.