While the BJP rose to dominance in Bihar in the Assembly elections, it has reasserted its supremacy in the other states where by-elections were held this month.
By-elections need not always be taken as political barometers but the number and nature of the seats and the diversity of the states where they were held make them somewhat representative and indicative of the political mood. That mood is clear, with the BJP winning 41 of the 59 by-elections, snatching most of the seats from Congress or other parties. It won 27 seats from Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.
The seats in MP were those vacated by MLAs loyal to Jyotiraditya Scindia, who defected to the BJP to bring down the Kamal Nath government. It also won all eight seats in Gujarat, six out of seven in UP, two in Karnataka and a seat in Telangana, giving a surprise blow to the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). In Karnataka, it won two seats which had been held by Congress and JD(S). With the victories, the BJP has further consolidated its position in states where it is in power and has shown the will and ability to move into new areas. They show that the economic downturn, the distress caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and other issues highlighted by the Opposition have not made an impression on the people in any of the states.
The BJP’s performance contrasts with that of the Congress. The former gained what the latter has lost, and more. While Congress’ poor showing in the Bihar elections was the main reason for the failure of the Mahagathbandhan, which needed only a few more seats to reach the finish line, the by-elections were disastrous for the party. In most of the seats, it was in direct contest with the BJP, and most were seats which it had held.
It won only 11 of the 59 seats and could neither retain most of the seats it had held nor pose a credible challenge to other parties in seats which were held by them. In UP, which is the most important state in the national political calculus, it won no seat and less than 8% of the polled votes. The BJP polled over 20% votes more than Congress in Gujarat. The lone consolation victories were in Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Haryana. That is cold comfort.
Congress has serious issues to contend with, relating to leadership, organisation, purpose, strategy and even the will to win. It will not be able to stop its decline and find relevance unless all these issues are confronted quickly and earnestly.