China is playing for higher stakes

India and China were on track late on Monday to complete disengaging troops from Patrolling Point-15 in the Gogra-Hot Springs area in Ladakh. The disengagement at PP15, which began on September 8, several weeks after the last round of military-level talks between the two sides, is an important step forward. Since the violent face-off between the two sides at Galwan Valley in June 2020, 16 rounds of talks have taken place between military commanders of the two sides, besides the hectic public and behind-the-scenes parleys at the political level. These had led to troops pulling back from the Galwan Valley, the Pangong Tso and the Gogra Post, but PP15, Depsang and Demchok had continued to remain difficult to disengage from due to Chinese intransigence. The 13th round of talks in October last year was particularly acrimonious and resulted in the two sides issuing statements blaming each other for the stalemate. While talks since February this year did produce joint statements, pulling back troops from the remaining friction areas has been a slow and uneven process. The disengagement of troops at PP15 now, therefore, is a positive development as it breaks a months-long deadlock.

India must now focus on getting the Chinese to disengage from Depsang and Demchok. This will be a tough nut to crack. The Chinese are reportedly unwilling to even discuss disengaging from Depsang. Delhi must stand firm on pushing the Chinese to move out of Depsang, given its high strategic value to India’s security.

It is likely that the Chinese agreed to disengage from PP15 so as to smooth the way for a summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting due to take place in Uzbekistan later this week. In the past, the Chinese have reached tactical deals with India to smooth the way ahead of summits, only to renege on their commitments once the summit is over. This was the experience during the 74-day Doklam standoff when China agreed to pull back its troops ahead of the BRICS summit it was hosting in Beijing. Weeks after the summit, its soldiers were back near the area of confrontation and China subsequently went about building road infrastructure that India and Bhutan had objected to, albeit along a slightly different alignment, presenting Delhi with a fait accompli. India has been saying that de-escalation of tensions along the border must precede normalisation of relations. While a Modi-Xi meeting is welcome if it leads to complete de-escalation, India cannot agree to a business-as-usual relationship with China at this juncture. If a Modi-Xi summit materialises, India must use the opportunity to get the Chinese military out of the Depsang area. It must be kept in mind that in smoothing the way for a India-China summit, Beijing is playing for much higher and globally important stakes in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China ratcheting up tensions over Taiwan.