The Congress pulled off one of the most remarkable victories in recent times when it routed the BJP in Karnataka in the May 10 elections. The victory was as decisive as it could be, belying predictions of a narrow win or a hung assembly. The party will be pleased that it has won one more state after Himachal Pradesh, in a drought season that began in 2018. Most things worked in favour of the party, and it put in the effort to win the elections. The victory gives much confidence to the party at a time when it was seen as lacking in the will and the wherewithal to overcome its rivals. With 135 MLAs, it can also be confident that its government will be secure and immune to disruption.
The Congress had effective narratives to present to the people, given the poor performance of the Basavaraj Bommai government and the confusion in the BJP over its leadership and electoral themes. The attack on ‘40% commission’ and non-performance hit home and created an anti-incumbency burden for the BJP, which the Congress was ready to exploit. The BJP’s experiments with leadership and candidate selection created fresh problems, with a section of the Lingayats, considered the party’s base, moving away from it. Last minute stitches could not mend the tear. In all areas of the state except in Bengaluru and on the coast, the party bled votes. Minority votes consolidated in favour of the Congress, and it gained from the erosion of JD(S) votes in the Old Mysore region and other places where the regional party has a presence. It attracted votes from the Dalit factions and almost every social group, and came to represent a broader social coalition. It also had a leadership which brought home all the advantages. The party was well prepared to seize the opportunity that came its way. Its strategy was to make it a local fight against the BJP, eschewing national issues and avoiding major dependence on national leaders, and without falling into the trap of fighting the BJP on the latter’s terms. It did well to learn from past elections in other states where regional parties have a better record of fighting and defeating the BJP. The Congress in Karnataka reshaped itself as a regional party fighting a national party. Even the party’s national icons were more guest artists than real players. The party did well to avoid the soft Hindutva trap which it had sometimes fallen into while countering the BJP.
But the Congress may also note that the victory was to an extent by default, and can be attributed more to the lapses and failures of the BJP than to its own strengths. However, the Congress made good use of the situation, burying differences, attending to organisational weaknesses, and taking a positive line all along. The realisation that a failure in Karnataka would make it extremely difficult for the party to come back in the state and at the national level may have made it a life and death struggle, and it came out in robust life and health. The victory in Karnataka will give a much needed boost to the party at the national level, and also in states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where assembly elections are due this year. It will also energise the Opposition and give a better direction to the efforts being made to present a united fight against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The BJP had tried to set a communal narrative for the elections by talking about hijab, halal and azaan, but went slow on it later, finding that the state was not responsive to it. The references to the uniform civil code (UCC) and the National Registry of Citizens (NRC) in the manifesto were just a reminder of the party’s long-term agenda, which did not appeal to the people of the state. It did not have much to offer except the achievements of the Central government and the possible advantages of having a ‘double engine’ government. The attempt to introduce communal themes into the campaign, with the invocation of Bajrang Bali, and Prime Minister’s Narendra Modi’s carpet bombing campaign did not work. The overdoing of the Modi factor and the temptation to return to the party’s pet themes may only have exposed the absence of real concerns that the people could relate to. The defeat of more than half the members of the cabinet showed what the people thought about the government. The BJP may have to go back to the drawing board to decide how it can get out of this corner. The defeat in Karnataka also means that the party has lost its foothold in the South and most of the major states in the country are now outside its control and domination.
The greatest lesson of the election is that no campaign, even those done with unlimited resources and glitz and glamour, will work if the people are determined to change a government. That is a lesson in democracy. The BJP may have spent resources like it has never done before. But the deployment of money, power, propaganda and the country’s most popular leader did not sway the voters to the BJP’s side. This is a lesson above party politics. The Congress has learnt this lesson in the past. The change in Karnataka should affirm our faith in democracy--it puts the voter centre-stage, and not a party or leader.
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