JOIN USErdogan wins amid fading popularity
Recep Tayyip Erdogan's victory in Turkey in a run-off presidential election is historic for several reasons. The country’s longest-serving leader–he was prime minister between 2003 and 2014, and president for 10 subsequent years--Erdogan has now won an unprecedented third term as president. This means that he is entering his third consecutive decade as Turkey’s leader. Although Erdogan has won another presidential term, having secured 52% of the vote in the run-off, his popularity is waning. This is the first time that he has had to face a run-off vote as he failed to cross the halfway mark in the first round. Importantly, Erdogan may not have won at all had the election been free and fair. Incidents of brazen bribing of voters, stuffing of votes, and misuse of state institutions have been reported. Since a failed coup in 2016, Erdogan has abolished the post of prime minister and amassed powers in the presidency. The Turkish economy has been reeling under a 40% inflation rate.
So why did voters choose Erdogan? Like with nationalist strongmen in other countries, Erdogan ran a campaign built on national pride. He courted nationalists, conservatives and religious voters, and projected his authoritarian rule as a strong leadership that made Turkey a great power. He accused his rival of supporting ‘terrorists’ by which he meant minorities like the Kurds. That 48% of Turkish voters did not vote for Erdogan indicates that almost half of all voters do not support Erdogan’s authoritarian and Islamist vision. It also signals how deeply divided Turkish society is. Yet Erdogan will be in a strong position to persist with his policies as his ruling coalition secured a majority of seats in the May 14 parliamentary election.
Underscoring Turkey’s key role in global geopolitics was the long line of presidents and prime ministers who congratulated Erdogan on his victory. It included leaders of NATO countries and also of Russia and China. Although Turkey is a member of NATO, it has not criticised Russian President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. More importantly, it is providing Ukraine with weapons. As for India’s relations with Turkey, these have been hampered by Ankara’s proximity to Pakistan, especially on the Kashmir issue. Erdogan himself has vociferously championed Pakistani positions on Kashmir. That can be expected to continue during Erdogan’s third presidential term. However, over the past year, small signs of change have emerged. Given the severity of Turkey’s economic crisis, Erdogan may look to India for support. New Delhi should look for creative ways to engage Erdogan.