For Gujarat, Modi matters, nothing else

The remarkable landslide victory of the BJP in Gujarat was expected, with all the factors that worked in its favour and those that worked against its opponents coming into full play in the elections. It suffered a setback in Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress would be happy that it will be able to form the government. If the BJP touched a historically high tally, overtaking the record of 149 seats out of 182, set by the Congress under Madhavsinh Solanki, Himachal Pradesh did not change its history of alternating between BJP and Congress. The BJP’s massive victory in Gujarat overshadows its loss in Himachal Pradesh, which is a smaller state and politically and economically less important than the western state. Gujarat is the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been a laboratory of Hindutva, and has now given the BJP its seventh consecutive term.

Narendra Modi is the BJP’s biggest mascot in Gujarat and the credit for the victory would go to him. He had started an intense campaign in the state months before the elections. The party has a strong organisational base in the state. Anti-incumbency sentiment against the state government was nipped well in time by removing the entire state cabinet, including the then Chief Minister Vijay Rupani, a year before the elections.

The Patidar community, which had formed a strong base for the BJP, had drifted from it after the reservation agitation ahead of the 2017 elections. The community and some of its leaders went back to the BJP in the last five years and added to the party’s prospects. To leave no stone unturned, the Modi government also turned on the Electoral Bonds money tap at will ahead of the elections, and the BJP’s many campaigners, including Union Home Minister Amit Shah, deployed communal rhetoric strategically. The Congress, which was a strong opposition after the last elections, is on track to lose as many as 60 of its seats. It was clear that the parry did not do much campaigning in the state. No major central leader went to Gujarat, and it has no good leadership at the state level. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has made its entry in the state and won some seats, took away a part of the Congress vote. The AAP has not done too badly, with 5 seats and over 12 per cent votes in a state where it had no presence.

Himachal Pradesh is a classic case of the anti-incumbency sentiment working against the government and aiding the opposition Congress. The party did not have any good leadership in Himachal either, but issues like those relating to the old pension scheme helped Congress win there. It has done well in terms of seats and vote share, but it will need to protect them from the ever-present threat of ‘Op Kamal’ by the BJP.