Focus on Rahul Gandhi could backfire on BJP

The BJP’s efforts to turn the 2024 polls as a Modi vs Rahul contest might not be as easy for the party as it was in 2014 and 2019

Since last week, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been at pains to prove that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is an anti-national. This is in response to Gandhi’s recent statement while in London that democracy was being undermined by the Narendra Modi government.

This led to a rarity where the Opposition wanted Parliament to function, while the treasury benches stalled proceedings demanding Gandhi’s apology. On March 19, the Delhi Police reached Gandhi’s residence seeking details about his remarks made during Bharat Jodo Yatra that women told him that they had been sexually assaulted.

The BJP’s strong reaction can be interpreted as the ideological response of a party that has nationalism as its core principle. Seen from a liberal space, Gandhi’s remarks appear to be an extension of his freedom of expression — but, for the BJP this is an affront on India as a nation, and belittles India’s democracy on a foreign soil.

Well-panned Strategy

This, however, is more political than ideological, done with an eye on the 2024 general elections. This appears to be a well-planned strategy of the BJP to make the elections a Modi-verses-Gandhi fight. The incessant attack on Gandhi will keep him in the news, and this, ultimately, will make the 2024 Lok Sabha elections a presidential Modi-versus-Gandhi fight. Thus the contest would be a cakewalk for the BJP because Gandhi cannot match Modi’s popularity and charisma. The BJP has successfully done this in the 2014 and the 2019 elections, and hopes to repeat it in 2024.

In the past too there have been efforts to turn the general elections campaign into a presidential style one: the BJP tried it with Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2004, but failed. Under Modi, this style was perfected, to an extent that Modi became the first Prime Minister to gain absolute majority in the lower house since 1984. The scale of victory increased in 2019.

With Modi as the poster boy, the national party invariably gains on an average more than 10 percent votes vis-a-vis its own vote-share in the assembly elections. The question now is: will 2024 see a repeat of 2014 and 2019?

Diminishing Returns

Predicting electoral results comes with its own risks, especially when the Lok Sabha polls are almost a year away. That said, BJP’s Modi-versus-Gandhi strategy might not prove effective this time. If in 2014 Gandhi (and the then ruling Congress) was handicapped by the corruption charges faced by the Manmohan Singh government, in 2019 the Balakot air strikes dramatically changed the game for Modi. Back then, Gandhi was also at the receiving end of an incessant propaganda which projected him as a political lightweight (pappu) no match for Modi.

Today, Gandhi is not wet behind the ears. His ~150 day-long Bharat Jodi Yatra has catapulted him into the league of serious politicians with a pan-India presence. He is seen as weaving an alternate narrative; unlike many Opposition leaders, he is not afraid to take Modi head on, and the people realise that it is for this that he is being targeted. This change in perception will help Gandhi and the Congress.

Renewed Vigour

The Congress today seems to be more energised. In 2014, the grand old party was a demoralised and a much-maligned force due to the lack of corrective measures and factionalism at its top. The Congress is still organisationally weak, and many leaders have left the party, but to a certain extent, it appears to have regained its fighting spirit.

What can be seen as the tipping point was the interrogation of Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi by the central agencies in the National Herald case. The party realised that if it did not fight back against the government’s excesses the party did not have a future. Since then the Congress has become aggressive; be it on social media or TV debates or in Parliament, it is attacking the BJP-led NDA government with renewed vigour. The Bharat Jodo Yatra has given it the confidence that all is not lost, and that a large section of India is still with the Congress.

Silver Lining

Another factor which should not be ignored is that in 2019 the Opposition unity index was abysmally low. Today, thanks to the central agencies, many of the opposition parties have realised that only together they can fight Modi, and that if they remain fractured, then there is no future for them post-2024. Also, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge has clarified that the ‘Congress is willing to scarifies the dominant role’ in the anti-Modi alliance. He has also said that the Congress is in touch with other parties for the larger unity.

Let’s not forget that the Congress is already in alliance in Bihar, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand. Despite fighting the Left in Kerala, it has tied up with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in West Bengal and Tripura, which is indicative of the fact that the Congress is more pragmatic and flexible now in coalition politics. Back-channel talks are underway with other parties.

This is not to argue that the Opposition will have an easy run in 2024. Modi is a formidable leader. He has a gigantic election machine at his disposal. With disproportionately huge resources and ‘compromised’ institutions, he might look unbeatable as of now — but the battle of 2024 is more complicated than is generally believed to be.

With a 10-year anti-incumbency, Modi has much more to answer for than Gandhi. With the Adani-Hindenburg report haunting it, the BJP’s strategy might not be as effective as is being assumed in the BJP camp. They might need a Plan B.

(Ashutosh is Editor, Satyhindi, and author of 'Hindu Rashtra'.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.