Gen Z and regime change

Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal have witnessed a generational shift in political participation.

Procedurally, India has become the largest functional democracy in the world, whereas its neighbours have been struggling with it. Though all the neighbouring countries have common civilisational and democratic legacies, they still are witnessing an interface between domestic politico-economic crises along with external geopolitical competition for regime change.

In fact, with the disappearance of the ‘colonial masters’, these neighbours have plunged into a vortex of either military dictatorships, religious resurgence or ethnic backlash.

This happened primarily because of the erosion of the anti-colonial nationalistic hegemony and the crisis of legitimacy that followed was tackled either by primordial appeals to religion and ethnicity, by resorting to discipline and repression of military dispensations, or often by the above factors working in conjunction.

However, recent trends reflect generational shifts in political participation, particularly in smaller countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal.

These countries have recently experienced regime change through protests, military intervention or constitutional-electoral processes. Though Pakistan has a top-down approach, where the military has a significant influence over civilian governments, the removal of prime minister Imran Khan through a parliamentary no-confidence motion in 2022 marked a significant political shift.

His government was replaced by a coalition of two rival political parties of Pakistan: the Pakistan Peoples Party of Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of Sharif. This coalition —  consecrated by Army chief Asim Munir, now Field Marshal, and the Americans — has been led by Shehbaz Sharif.

In fact, the ruling coalition in Pakistan had collaborated with the US, hoping to deal with the economic crisis, inflation and IMF dependency on the one hand and overpower the voices of the youth, mobilised strongly through social media campaigns supporting Imran, on the other. The US was also uneasy with Imran, who had been closely working with Russia and China during his term as the prime minister.

Political churn

Unlike Pakistan, other neighbours have witnessed a bottom-up (people’s coup) approach in regime change. However, domestic politico-economic crises and the role of external powers reflect the same trend.

These neighbours have faced popular uprising by determined youths and Gen Z. Sri Lanka experienced a dramatic regime change due to economic collapse.

Nationwide protests known as ‘Aragalaya’ transformed into political crises, leading to the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. This resulted in the rise of Ranil Wickremesinghe as president through parliamentary elections.

Sri Lanka’s crisis produced a parliamentary transition through constitutional means, where the youth demanded systemic political reforms and anti-corruption measures, which finally paved the way for the election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake as president.

The Monsoon Revolution in Dhaka took a sharp turn on August 5, 2024, when then prime minister Sheikh Hasina hurriedly left the country for a safe abode.

Her ouster from power may have calmed down the protesters as it addressed the core demands of the “Students Against Discrimination”. Against Hasina’s government, there were grievances over employment opportunities due to the quota policy, corruption, nepotism and authoritarianism.

Nevertheless, the kind of acts committed by the protesters post-Hasina’s ouster indicate that the movement was not just an outburst of students’ frustration against a specific policy but was a deliberate and organised attempt, particularly by the radical forces, to re-instate the ideology of Old Muslim Leaguers, the adherents of 1947 (Islam as core), against the spirit of 1971 (Bengali culture as core).

The Jamaat-e-Islami once again collaborated with Pakistan and the US for their politico-strategic motives. The Americans allegedly wanted to have a naval base on St. Martin Island in the Bay of Bengal to minimise Chinese presence in the region, a request Hasina denied.

After Hasina, the interim government was meant to restore neutrality and prepare the ground for elections, but Muhammad Yunus was disproportionately influenced by Jamaat.

After 18 months, the country finally witnessed the 13th Jatiya Sansad elections, which were criticised for excluding the Awami League from the electoral process. The winner — Bangladesh Nationalist Party under Tarique Rahman — may have the potential to reintroduce stability, but it does not translate into inclusive democracy.

After the September 2025 Gen Z movement in Nepal, the results of the subsequent parliamentary elections of March 5, 2026, have marked a revolutionary change. After the first “revolution” against the monarchy in 2006, the country had Constituent Assembly elections in 2008.

Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) had received similar enthusiastic support from the people. However, it failed to live up to public expectations and couldn’t provide an inclusive constitution. Democracy did not firmly take root, political and economic equality could not materialise and a stable government was not provided.

After 10 years of the new constitution of 2015, the youth‑led protests and anti‑government demonstrations led the second “revolution” in the form of the Gen Z movement. The subsequent fall of the K P Sharma Oli government and the fresh elections on March 5, won massive support for the newly formed Rastriya Swatantra Party under the young leadership of Balendra (Balen) Shah. By giving a call against corruption, nepotism, authoritarianism, Balen has successfully mobilised Gen Z in his favour.

The main triggers for the Gen Z movement was the Oli government’s decision to ban 26 social media platforms and the use of force to suppress the protesters.

The traditional parties were in deep crisis over issues such as political instability (frequent government changes), unemployment and, consequently, mass youth out‑migration.

The ban on social media (mostly owned by the West) and Oli’s perceived proximity to China annoyed the US. Nepal witnessed a classical generational shift while Sri Lanka displayed institutional strength. Bangladesh couldn’t come out of traditional patterns. Hence, the change of guard in the neighbourhood reflects a complex interplay of domestic dynamics and geopolitical competition between extra-regional powers.

While some transitions occur through elections, others emerge from popular uprisings or institutional crises or the influence of social media. The growing political participation of Gen Z represents a transformative force shaping the region’s democratic future.

For India, promoting liberal democratic values and economic cooperation with its neighbours will be crucial to ensure regional stability.

The author is a professor at the School of International Studies, JNU.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)