To lead Global South, India must play the long game

The G20 Summit must be the start — not the aim — of New Delhi's recent efforts to rally developing nations.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg last month, one term dominated his speech. To the grouping that consists of Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa (other than India), Modi emphasised — five times, no less — that he viewed the platform as a vehicle to advance the interests of the ‘Global South’.

That sharp focus on developing nations across Asia, Africa, and South America will once again take centre stage later this week when Modi hosts leaders of the G20 nations and a select set of special invitees in New Delhi.

It’s all part of a carefully crafted narrative aimed at pitching India as the leader of the Global South. But it’s a script that will only work if India can back its words up with its actions. For New Delhi isn’t the only one craving that leadership role: In fact, Beijing also occupies it, in a de facto capacity.

The India-China contest

That contest between the Asian giants isn’t new. In the 1950s, the two lobbied to take charge of the Bandung process under which newly independent nations of Asia and Africa attempted to come together to argue for their collective interests before global powers. Yet after both vying for influence during the Cold War, China has in recent decades used its economic boom to emerge as the go-to partner for many emerging economies.

It won’t be easy for India to compete with China’s hard power in this race to position itself as the leader of the Global South. But the growing global tensions, especially involving China and the United States, that are tearing at the geopolitical landscape, offer India a rare opportunity.

With an economy six times the size of India’s, China has the muscle of money. Of the six new countries that will join the BRICS, five — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia — count China as their top trading partner. The sixth, Argentina, relies on China for its largest chunk of exports, though Brazil is its biggest overall trading partner.

Indeed, across the developing world, China is a leading trading ally, investor, and increasingly, a vital lender.

Voice of Global South 

But India doesn’t need to follow the Chinese template for influence.

It is today a major trading nation in its own right: Its grains are critical to the food security of many sub-Saharan African nations, its refined oil keeps Europe’s factories buzzing, and its polished diamonds bring the sparkle to luxury showrooms in New York, Paris, and London. It has the pedigree of a player that punches above its weight globally, and that does not abandon the cause of emerging economies — unlike China, which, for instance, cut its own deal with the US on Climate Change ahead of the G20 Summit in Hangzhou in 2016.

To be fair, the Modi government has taken steps to build on this legacy over the past year in particular. In January, the Prime Minister hosted a virtual Voice of the Global South summit attended by leaders and representatives of more than 100 countries, in essence to seek their views on how India should shape its G20 presidency.

A rare opportunity 

We’ll see soon just how much the voice of the Global South is reflected in the G20 Summit debates, but Modi has also pushed for the grouping to include the African Union as a permanent member.

These are good steps, but here’s the catch: If all of this was aimed at showcasing a successful G20 Summit, the gains of the past year will evaporate as soon as the VIP planes take off from New Delhi at the end of the conclave on September 10. The G20 Summit must serve as the launchpad of India’s plans to boldly argue for the Global South’s interests, not the culmination. 

Rarely does the world give emerging powers an opportunity to carve out a unique space for themselves. Today, like the 1950s, is one such moment.

As the US and China impose sanctions on each other, raise the stakes of a potential military confrontation, and joust for influence in other parts of the world, more and more smaller nations are desperate to avoid getting caught in their new Cold War. They don’t want to have to pick a side between Beijing and Washington.

India could offer a third way — one which pushes back against parochial and restrictive policies internationally, emphasises multilateralism, and counters efforts by the two big powers to demand that other nations line up behind them.

Silent for long stretches

Whether in the Pacific Islands or in Africa, India has made this start. But it needs to do much more. After launching summits with both regions, New Delhi dropped the ball. Three India-Africa summits were held between 2008 and 2015; none since then. After back-to-back conclaves with Pacific Island nations in 2014 and 2015, India failed to follow up until a summit in Papua New Guinea earlier this year.

That must not happen again. You can’t be the voice of the Global South if you go silent for long stretches.

As India itself is wooed by multiple powers, it must also stay careful not to commit so much to its strengthening relationship with the West that it is no longer seen as strategically autonomous.

As New Delhi joins more and more high tables, it must not forget this journey. No one likes those who reach heights standing on their shoulders, only to kick them down.

(Charu Sudan Kasturi is a senior journalist whose work focuses on international relations, trade, energy, and technology. Twitter: @CharuKasturi.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH