Gujarat local polls: AAP's rise eclipses BJP as Congress' bigger worry

In the local body elections in Gujarat to be held on April 26, the ruling BJP has already secured more than 700 seats without a single vote cast. The reason is that candidates from the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) withdrew their nominations. The number has more than tripled compared to the 2021 elections. 

The opposition parties alleged that it was due to “arm twisting, coercion and allurement” that their candidates withdrew their nominations. The Congress and AAP have been alleging that it was a “murder of democracy” in the manner in which their candidates withdrew. The BJP, on the other hand, dubbed it a victory and a failure of opposition parties to find the right candidates. 

From Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel to other state leaders, BJP leaders lauded their “victory” and even urged voters to deliver such a decisive mandate that the opposition would not dare to file nominations.

However, political observers say such developments are not entirely surprising. They note that even at the height of its dominance in the state, the BJP tends to leave little to chance, often seeking to maintain a clear advantage over its rivals by hook or by crook. Some also point to concerns about the use of State resources and institutions in ways that may work to the party’s benefit.

The State Election Commission announced elections for a total of 9,992 seats across municipal corporations, municipalities, taluka panchayats, and district panchayats on April 1, a day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s series of public meetings in Gujarat.

The prime minister urged people during his public meetings “to keep the super-fast express of development moving from panchayat to Parliament”. It marked the beginning of the BJP campaign. This message from the top also reflects how seriously the BJP takes these elections.

While the BJP is aiming to maintain its firm grip on the state, the election is seen as critical for the principal opposition, the Congress, which is facing an existential crisis. More than the BJP, the Congress faces a growing challenge from Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, which is aggressively positioning itself to emerge as the main opposition force in the state.

Despite remaining away from power for decades, the Congress had largely retained its vote share until the arrival of AAP in the 2022 election. That year marked its worst defeat, with the party winning just 17 seats in the 182-member Assembly and securing around 27 per cent of the vote.

In contrast, in 2017, the Congress had won 77 seats with a little over 41 per cent vote share. AAP was not in the fray then. 

In 2022, AAP secured about 13 per cent of the vote but won only five seats. Post-result analyses suggested that AAP split the Congress vote, contributing to the BJP’s sweeping victory of 156 seats. In at least three dozen constituencies, AAP’s presence significantly impacted the Congress’s prospects, benefiting the BJP. 

Rather than damaging the BJP’s prospects, AAP leaders, with their aggressive campaigning, have been able to attract youngsters, particularly from dominant Patidar communities. As an opposition force, AAP is seen as more effective.

Another example of AAP’s growing challenge to the Congress was the 2021 Surat Municipal Corporation elections, when the Arvind Kejriwal-led party won 27 out of 120 seats, while Congress failed to open its account. 

The result effectively pushed the Congress out of the corporation and positioned AAP as the main opposition force. It also marked the AAP’s first significant electoral breakthrough in Gujarat, followed by the party winning five Assembly seats in the 2022 elections. 

What also makes these local elections crucial is whether the final outcome mirrors the 2022 Assembly election, which saw a significant chunk of Congress’ vote share shift to AAP. In this context, the results are likely to set the tone for next year’s Assembly election.

Historically, local elections have played a key role in the rise of the BJP. The party saw one of its early electoral successes in 1983, when it won the Rajkot Municipal Corporation election, followed by coming to power in the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation in 1987. In less than a decade, it built a strong cadre base across municipalities and corporations, and by 1995, it was able to form the state government on its own.

Behind this electoral success was sustained grassroots work by the RSS, along with the rise of Hindutva and the politics of religious yatras.

Ever since, while the BJP has maintained its hold across all levels of administration in the state, right from local bodies to agricultural and dairy boards, the opposition Congress has steadily lost its grip.

In this context, AAP leaders and supporters look more serious on the ground. Kejriwal has been frequently visiting the state, particularly meeting workers in the Saurashtra region, wooing the influential Patidar voters as well as the tribal belt where the party has found leaders and a support base.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.