Hope for Delhi-Dhaka ties, but Tarique Rahman is not the new Sheikh Hasina

For New Delhi, BNP’s landslide victory is both an opportunity and a reminder that Dhaka’s politics has changed

The verdict from the Bangladesh elections shows that voters opted for political stability over continued revolution, backing a political party that, despite a generational change in leadership, belongs to the old order. At the same time, the emphatic ‘yes’ in the referendum on constitutional reforms confirms that in national consciousness, the 2024 Monsoon Revolution was much more than a passing event. 

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)’s sweeping victory is both a boon and a bane for its leader, Tarique Rahman, the son of former President Ziaur Rahman and Prime Minister Khaleda Zia. He is now expected to restore governance and order, while implementing constitutional changes that could trim the powers of the Prime Minister and elected government, and strengthen the office of the President. Dragooned into the reforms process by the interim administration, the BNP was unconvinced about the proposed changes and endorsed them reluctantly.

The Jamaat-i-Islami, its Islamist allies, and its other partner, the newbie National Citizens’ Party (NCP) — formed by the students who led the 2024 uprising — had hoped to create a larger impact. Banned by Hasina and reinstated after her ouster, the Jamaat immediately began to reactivate its networks on the ground.

Encouraged by the victories of its student wing in the university polls, the Jamaat believed it would score big, perhaps even deny the BNP a majority. It made attempts to widen its acceptability by apologising, after a fashion, for its collaborationist role during the liberation struggle.

The Jamaat's haul of 69 seats — its biggest tally ever — makes it the main Opposition and gives it room to grow. However, its inability to come anywhere close to the BNP shows what the voters rejected, especially women voters who are said to have played a big part in the BNP’s victory. The NCP's six seats on the back of the Jamaat underscore the difference between an uprising and electoral politics. Still, as a bloc of 77, this Opposition will try to punch above its weight, particularly as its street power is formidable.

With the Awami League banned, questions about the election's credibility remain. The party’s voter base has not vanished. The 2008 polls, considered the last fair elections in Bangladesh, saw an 87% voter turnout and were won by the Awami League under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina. The turnout in the February 12 polls was just under 60%. Some Awami League voters may have strategically backed the BNP as the ‘lesser of the two evils’, belying Jamaat's expectations, based on the Awami League-BNP hostility, that it would get the Awami League votes. This is a hopeful sign for a future in which the BNP and the Awami League need not remain mortal enemies.

Implications for India

For India, the challenge is repairing ties with a neighbouring country it was instrumental in creating. Bangladesh, bound on three sides by Indian States, is crucial to India's security, and its ‘Look East’ policy — which is a vision for the development of the Northeast and a push for trade and connectivity with Southeast Asia.

So far, Rahman has avoided anti-India posturing, despite his fraught history with New Delhi during the 2001-2006 Khaleda Zia government. He made no comments on the cricket fiasco. Clearly, he does not want to foreclose any option, but he has also conveyed that he will not be India's post-Hasina ‘most favourite person’ in Dhaka. In his press conference after winning the polls, Rahman said his foreign policy would be based on what is in Bangladesh’s best interests. This view was reinforced by Hamaiun Kobir, Rahman’s foreign policy adviser, who, in an earlier interview, said that the renewal of the 1996 Ganga Water treaty will be based on national interest. 

The treaty, which was signed when Hasina was in power, is due for renewal in December. Though the Khaleda Zia government that followed did not renege on the treaty, the BNP and Hasina's other opponents have criticised the treaty as disadvantageous for Bangladesh. 

The BNP’s stance on China and Pakistan will also shape ties with India. Taking a leaf out of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's book, Rahman has invited leaders of at least 12 countries, including India, for his swearing-in ceremony. This might be the perfect icebreaker for New Delhi and Dhaka, provided the two look beyond their blind spots — New Delhi’s focus on attacks on Hindus, and Dhaka’s sensitivity to Hasina’s presence in India.

New Delhi's aggressive posturing on anti-Hindu incidents in Bangladesh, which also serves a domestic political agenda, has also brought attention to the plight of minorities in BJP-ruled India. Bangladeshis point to this double standard. 

Dhaka’s focus on Hasina's presence in India is also a stumbling block. Modi's prompt congratulations to Rahman may have unsettled Hasina, but New Delhi will never extradite her to face a death sentence. With his commanding majority, Rahman, unlike Muhammad Yunus, has no reason to feel insecure about India’s sanctuary to her.

In the immediate term, how New Delhi and Dhaka handle these two issues will set the tone for whether they can move past these stumbling blocks, and do business with each other.

Nirupama Subramanian is an independent journalist. X: @tallstories.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)