How many souls can we sustain?

The population of the world is expected to peak at 9 billion by 2050, and it will plateau at that level.

It was Thomas Robert Malthus, who propounded, way back in 1789, the theory that while population increases geometrically, food production grows arithmetically, thus making sustenance of human population unviable at some point in the history of our planet earth.

The current world population is clocking a little over 7 billion souls. In the opinion of some experts, this figure is already 2 to 3 times more than what the resources of earth can support with acceptable levels of comfort. However, several factors are required to arrive at the maximum carrying capacity of humans on earth. According to one interesting extrapolation, if the entire population of earth is to enjoy the living standard of USA, it can support 1.5 billion. If it’s equivalent to that of UK, it will be 2.5 billion. If the population of the world lived like the average Indian, earth can sustain 15 billion. If the standard of living is that of Rwanda, it can support 18 billion!

Demographers have calculated that with the current rate of births and deaths, the population of the world is expected to peak at 9 billion by 2050, and will plateau at that level. It’s a known fact that availability of natural resources is already stretched. The pressure on land, fresh water, clean air and fossil fuels is alarming. 

Another level

However, Malthusian Theory was proved wrong with the Industrial Revolution taking the world to another level of prosperity and consumption. By the end of the 18th century, it was felt that the world with a population of a billion at the time had already reached its limit. But scientific discoveries and inventions helped mankind to raise the bar on the number of humans the world could sustain.

By the dawn of 19th century, with the advent of the steam engine, use of fossil fuel, and better agricultural practices, world food production kept pace with population growth, thus disproving Malthus. Of course, development and availability of food was not uniform in all parts of the globe. There were several areas in the world where starvation deaths were rampant. The main cause for this imbalance was not the theory put forward by Malthus, but poor governance, colonialism, and political instability.

India suffered several famines during the course of its history. At the time of Independence India had a population of 350 million. Food shortages were a serious problem and India had to depend on imports and food-aid. I remember, as a student in early 1960s, when the population of the country had reached 450 million, food shortages were so acute that we were encouraged to ‘miss a meal a day’ so that food was available for the vulnerable in our society. It appeared Malthusian Theory was being proved right in the sub-continent. Then came the Green Revolution and the White Revolution in the 1970s, and the country was able to feed its population which had by then crossed the 600 million mark. Malthus was proved wrong again by technology.

Even though Thomas Malthus has been disproved, we cannot escape the reality that population has a direct bearing on the standard of living in a country. In fact, neo-Malthusian theorists advocate strong interventions by the state to keep population growth within limits – failing which they warn that Malthusian catastrophe could be a reality in some of the poorer nations. 

There are also projections that with the latest developments in food production the world may see surplus food availability by 2030! Some of the path-breaking researches underway are very close to producing edible meat in laboratories. Demand for meat is expected to grow 60 per cent by 2050.  Commercial production of in-vitro meat will eliminate use of unsustainable amounts of food grains, land, and water required to rear livestock. When this process is perfected, it is expected to use 45 per cent less energy and 99 per cent less land.

It’s technology that has been making Malthusian Theory irrelevant and will continue to do so. However, it will need human intervention by way of better governance, better civic sense and discipline to ensure that the increasing world population has adequate food supplies and other amenities. Nine billion souls by 2050 will be a formidable population, and any crisis can spin some countries out of control. India will be the most populous country in the world by 2030 with a population of 1.40 billion. The world, especially the poorer and populous nations such as India, will need to have the level of self discipline the Japanese displayed during the Fukushima disaster in 2011.