JOIN USHow TMC may galvanise an anti-BJP front in Tripura
Team Narendra Modi started its initial forays in Bengal about a year before the Assembly elections in March-April 2021 and irritated the Trinamool Congress (TMC) significantly. But factors not under their control, like strategic voting by the Muslims, soured the grapes for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Interestingly, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has now embraced the BJP's Bengal strategy for its foray into Tripura, the small North-Eastern state dominated by Bengalis. The Assembly election is due there at the beginning of 2022. The TMC is a marginal force there, just like the BJP was in Bengal before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But led by Young Turk Abhishek Banerjee, the TMC has started its thrust into the state with a declared aim of dislodging the saffron party from Tripura.
That it has made the BJP jittery is evident from the fact that Abhishek Banerjee's car was attacked in Agartala, TMC placards torn, and later some of the TMC men were even arrested, tempting him to go to the state again within a few days. Bengal BJP leaders are happy that its Tripura party welcomed the TMC brigade the same way as the TMC welcomed JP Nadda and others in Bengal. But the TMC did it as it was nervous, and now the Tripura BJP is betraying the same nerves.
There are reasons for the BJP's over-reaction. It is a new force in the state. Traditionally, the state was politically divided between the Left and the Congress, and the Left dominated in recent decades. But, as the people of Bengal chose TMC instead of the Congress to fight back the Left, the people of Tripura chose the BJP.
The saffron brigade rose suddenly and defeated the Left in the 2018 Assembly elections in Tripura. Along with its partner, the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura (IPTF), the BJP secured nearly nine per cent more votes than the Left. The BJP-led alliance won 44 seats in an assembly of 60. In 2019, it won both the Lok Sabha seats of the state, securing 49 per cent votes. The Left slipped to the third position with a 17.3 per cent vote share, whereas the Congress came up as the second force with 25.34 per cent votes.
Till now, the BJP was assured of sailing through the next assembly election thanks to the divided opposition. But the sudden entry of Abhishek Banerjee, who enjoys the guidance of both Mamata Banerjee and election strategist Prashant Kishor, the scenario may change.
The TMC has the potential of unifying the opposition before the next assembly election. Keeping in mind that it is a tiny state, the TMC may emerge as a force to reckon with in the coming months, and then it may have some authority to arbitrate an alliance.
Meanwhile, Manik Sarkar, the last Left chief minister who led the government till the beginning of 2018, recently dropped a hint that an alliance with TMC may be considered in the future. Abhishek Banerjee, too, has stated that any political party willing to fight the BJP is welcome to join hands with the TMC. The Congress surely will have no objection to joining such a broad alliance.
But is an alliance of the Left and TMC possible? Well, if ten years ago anyone asked a similar question about the alliance of the Left and the Congress in Bengal, the answer would have been an emphatic "no." But they started coming closer in 2016. The Left in Bengal is still allergic to the TMC, but the communists forge state-based alliances to stay relevant. In the recent Assembly election in Kerala, they fought the Congress but were in alliance with them in Bengal.
As the BJP has usurped the entire opposition space in Bengal, a debate on its stand vis-a-vis TMC has started in the Bengal CPI(M). The veteran leader Biman Bose, who still holds the post of chairman of the Left Front, said a couple of weeks ago that the party was ready to join hands with the TMC at the national level. Meanwhile, the Bengal party has also decided against equating the TMC with the BJP even in the state.
In a recent note sent to its party study circles, the state leadership of Bengal CPI(M) has asserted that in the party's future campaigns, slogans like "BJ-Mul" (BJP plus Trinamool) should not be used. The BJP, the communist leadership has clarified, is a "force backed by the fascist RSS" and is a bigger enemy. It indicates that if the situation so demands, an indirect joining of hands in the future could be possible in Bengal.
In Tripura, the game is afoot. Whether the opposition can defeat the BJP in Tripura is another question. But the TMC may change the political landscape of Tripura, and Abhishek Banerjee may play a crucial role in uniting the opposition there. If it happens, the BJP will have a tough time in the state.
(The writer is a journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.