I.N.D.I.A. adrift after polls

What does the outcome of the latest round of Assembly elections mean to the unity of the anti-BJP Opposition nationally?

The results have dealt the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, already beset with internal contradictions and tensions, a body blow and rendered it so weak that it may take a lot of time and effort for it to regroup.

There is also a threat that the crushing defeat suffered by the two key parties of the formation — DMK and TMC —  may leave the bloc terminally ill. As it is, the developments following the results in Tamil Nadu mean that the DMK is no longer part of this anti-BJP platform.

Separately, the outcome of the polls has the potential of leading to new equations in Parliament. One wonders if the act of the main I.N.D.I.A. partner, the Congress, deserting the DMK would push the latter to lend issue-based support to the ruling NDA at the Centre.

Also, will the Congress decision and other developments herald an entirely new non-BJP, non-Congress front consisting of most parties of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc? Such is the bloc’s uncertainty that the future is pregnant with many possibilities.

But one factor is clear: the results have thoroughly weakened the I.N.D.I.A.grouping, launched in 2023 to stop the ‘communal’ BJP nationally. It did have some impact – the BJP failed to get a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 and had to depend on the allies to form the government.

Hence, it will be a shot in the arm for the BJP if the DMK, hitherto a staunch opponent of the saffron outfit and a strong votary of the federal rights of the states, decides to carve a separate path for itself. Such a move could also redefine the way politics plays out in Tamil Nadu. We may even see a DMK-AIADMK-BJP combine facing Lok Sabha polls in 2029!

The BJP needs new allies in Parliament to pass Bills. The DMK has already written to the Lok Sabha Speaker to make a separate seating arrangement for the party in the House.

Sleeping with the BJP is nothing new for the DMK, which was part of the NDA from 1999 to 2003 when A B Vajpayee was the prime minister and had bagged some key ministries as a coalition partner.

The DMK parted ways with the BJP and joined hands with the UPA in 2004. With the DMK leaving the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, the TVK may replace it. The Congress has already announced that it will ally with the TVK to fight future elections. So, the TVK could be a new entrant in the I.N.D.I.A. grouping.

However, one silver lining for the Congress in the just-concluded elections was the result in Kerala. The unprecedented tally of 102 seats out of 140 for Congress-led UDF ensures that the party either has chief ministers or shares power in four of the five south Indian states.

Still, challenging times are ahead for the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.

While the Congress is the only party in the set-up with a national outreach, most of the allies have been uneasy with its big brother attitude. This reflects their trust deficit with the Congress. In addition, there is a strange contradiction of being partners at the national level and bitter rivals in the states – the Congress opposed the Left parties in Kerala and the TMC in West Bengal.

Also, allies such as the DMK in Tamil Nadu and the RJD in Bihar were unhappy with the Congress. The party refused to recognise Tejashwi Yadav as the chief ministerial face in last year’s Bihar’s Assembly elections while it took its own time in entering into a seat-sharing deal with the DMK in the recent polls. A section of the Congress wanted a tie-up with the TVK.

The way the Congress jettisoned its two-decade-old ties with the DMK and hurriedly entered into a truck with the victorious TVK made the Dravidian party describe the act as “back-stabbing”.

The Congress also did not share dais with its partners in Tamil Nadu or Bihar in the Assembly election campaigns.

In addition, the Left parties and the TMC are unhappy with the Congress for its tirade against them in the recent elections in West Bengal and Kerala.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, alleging that the two were “B teams” of the BJP, wanted to know why the Centre did not launch ED investigations into charges of corruption against the TMC and Left leaders.

This came at a time the Congress itself had been at the forefront of attacking the BJP for letting loose the central agencies against the leaders of the Opposition parties.

So, will this trust deficit lead to a third formation consisting of regional parties opposing both the BJP and the Congress? Will these include the DMK, TMC, RJD, SP, BJD, BRS, the NCP etc? The idea at the moment appears far-fetched but given the political bad blood, a new front is not entirely unlikely. If this happens, it will leave the anti-BJP Opposition further fragmented.

However, TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee, soon after her election debacle, gave a call to the Congress and Left parties to come together to fight the BJP jointly. But the response to her appeal has been cold so far.

There was a reason why the former West Bengal chief minister made such a call. For, had the three parties – which fought separately in the recent elections – forged unity before polls, the outcome may have been different.

Look at the vote share of these parties in the April-May polls: The BJP got 2,92,24,804 votes, the TMC (2,60,13,377), the Congress (18,90,858) and the Left Front (31,79,479). The combined vote of these anti-BJP
parties would have been 3,10,83,714, thus much more than the votes polled by the BJP.

Perhaps the three parties coming together could have stopped the BJP from capturing West Bengal. However, we must note that arithmetic is not chemistry in elections.

The next big test for the I.N.D.I.A. bloc is the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections next year. How the Congress goes ahead in seat-sharing with the Samajwadi Party will be watched with interest, though the former is a small player at the hustings.

(The writer is former Associate Editor, Deccan Herald)