JOIN USIgnoring Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh not an option for Modi-Shah
A hallmark of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the last seven years under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's watchful eye is to exude confidence even in the face of adversities such as the Covid-19 pandemic and a slew of poor administrative decisions. This spirit, on display in equal measure both at the government and political levels, has helped the Modi dispensation register a series of electoral victories.
As we draw closer to the next round of Assembly elections in five states early next year, including the politically significant Uttar Pradesh, we should assess the BJP's confidence levels. The road to the Lok Sabha passes through UP, which elects 80 MPs. Therefore, it is natural that the Hindutva party accords greater significance to its electoral fortunes in the state. That is why its leaders have made suitable noises, intermeshing religion and patriotism and calls to win over 300 seats in the 403-member UP Assembly.
The party has upped the ante on its election preparedness, which has the added advantage to browbeat the already divided opposition psychologically. However, Union Home Minister Amit Shah's statement in Lucknow on October 29, that kick-started the party's membership drive, gives an interesting context to the BJP's confidence levels.
"For Modi to become prime minister in 2024, Yogi Adityanath will have to be made chief minister again in 2022," Shah said. On the face of it, nothing seems to be wrong with this carefully crafted statement. However, it betrays how hard the brains behind this statement had to slog to strike a critical balance between Modi and the incumbent chief minister, Adityanath. It is also a departure from the usual pre-poll electoral practices the BJP follows.
In the BJP's election campaigns in other states, the focus is on the PM's persona. In UP, the surprise attachment comes in the form of the Yogi. With his statement, Shah has tried to maintain the criticality of the over-arching Modi factor, which has proved crucial for the BJP in elections after elections. At the same time, it ensures that Adityanath remains in the frame so as not to disturb the balance.
We know Modi is indispensable to the BJP's electoral fortunes, and it would not be a stretch to say Modi is BJP and BJP is Modi. But UP seems to be a different ballgame this time around. The BJP has mostly contested Assembly polls in Modi's name without naming chief ministerial candidates, which has paid dividends all through. In UP, however, Shah's statement suggests the circumstances are different as he acknowledged the importance of Adityanath and put to rest speculation about projecting him as the chief ministerial candidate again.
Unlike some of the BJP's other chief ministers, for example, in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, Adityanath is no pushover. The BJP will not fight its UP election campaign only in Modi's name, with Shah holding the command on the ground as ignoring Adithanath is not an option with the Modi-Shah combine.
Adityanath government's tackling of Covid-19 pandemic, farmers' agitation, dealing with law and order situation, among other such issues, has come for criticism. His government has launched a media blitz to project its "achievements". Notably, the focus of this advertising campaign is on Adityanath and not Modi. It is an exception to the trend we have observed in the states, and keeping Adityanath in good humour is the compulsion of the BJP top brass.
Projecting a robust front without disturbing the current arrangement seemed to have been perceived as the best bet by the party's poll strategists. The results of the UP polls will influence the momentum that the ruling and opposition parties take forward in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha poll campaign. The BJP, therefore, is averse to any experimentation as witnessed in some other states. It helps the BJP that the opposition is a divided house with no signs of their coming together.
The BJP has bared its UP strategy. The element of surprise, if at all, now lies with the opposition parties, such as the Samajwadi Party, Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal. The surprise would indeed be if these parties would come together or at least have some understanding to ensure direct contests with the BJP candidates across UP.
(The writer is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
Watch latest videos by DH here: